With the NBA Draft Lottery set to take place today, there are 14 teams currently praying to the ping-pong ball gods for a chance to alter the future of their franchises. While the lottery is important for these teams every year, there is one thing different about 2023: Victor “Wemby” Wembanyama. The 7’4” French phenom is the most hyped-up prospect the NBA has seen in years, and his potential franchise-changing impact has been compared to the likes of LeBron James and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. There are 14 teams with a chance to land Wemby, with odds ranging from 14% all the way down to 0.5%, so let’s break down what it would mean for each of those teams to win the lottery and get the chance to draft him.
Detroit Pistons (2022-2023 Record: 17-65)
Odds at #1 - 14%
After Cade Cunningham, the #1 overall pick from the 2021 NBA Draft, went down with a stress fracture to his leg that would require surgery, ending his season after only 12 games, it was a pretty bleak season for the Detroit Pistons. Without Cunningham, they were left with no motivation to be competitive, especially considering the potential prize that is Victor Wembanyama. Despite all of the losses, there were still some positives that Detroit fans could take away from the season, as Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren were both selected to the All-Rookie Second Team. The Pistons already have an exciting young core built around Cunningham, Ivey, and Duren, but by adding Wembanyama, they would instantly have one of the brightest futures in the league.
Detroit is one of the best situations that Wemby can end up in, as they have the pieces to emphasize his strengths while hiding his weaknesses. The opportunity to play with exciting young playmakers like Cunningham and Ivey would be a blessing for Wemby, as with his 7’4” frame and ridiculous 8’ wingspan, he will instantly become one of the league’s top lob threats. The threat that the two guards have will open up all sorts of scoring opportunities, and Wembanyama will be dangerous both rolling to the hoop for lobs and popping to hit wide-open threes. Additionally, even as the youngest player in the NBA last season, Jalen Duren consistently played much stronger than his age. At 6’10” and 250 lbs, Duren has a muscular build that can match up with the strongest post players the league has to offer, which would protect Wambanyama’s lean frame and free him up to use his incredible length to roam around as an off-ball shot blocker.
Houston Rockets (22-60)
Odds at #1 - 14%
The Houston Rockets are a franchise with no real sense of direction right now. Ever since the end of the James Harden era, they have consistently been one of the league’s worst teams, likely picking in the top three for the third straight draft. Despite the talent of players like Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, and Jabari Smith Jr., they consistently look like the league's most disorganized team, with a bunch of young guys just hunting for their own stats. The comparisons to AAU teams prompted them to fire head coach Stephen Silas and hire Ime Udoka, a disciplined leader who helped take the Celtics to the 2022 NBA Finals. If the Rockets get the chance to draft Wembanyama, it will finally give them a real piece to build around. While Green and Smith, who were drafted with the second and third overall picks of the 2021 and 2022 NBA, respectively, are both exciting young talents, they both look like they will be merely complementary stars at this point, rather than the type of superstar who can lead a team deep into the playoffs. If Wembanyama lives up to the potential that many seem to think he has, he could finally be the player that turns this franchise around.
San Antonio Spurs (22-60)
Odds at #1 - 14%
While most of the teams at the top of the lottery have pieces they are looking to build a future around, the talent desert in San Antonio is pretty barren right now. Because Hall of Fame coach, Greg Popovich, has refused to tank until this season, they haven’t had a top-three pick since they took Tim Duncan first overall all the way back in 1997. The Spurs took Jeremy Sochan with the ninth overall pick in last year’s draft, again their first pick in the top 10 since Duncan, and saw him go on to have a successful rookie season, being selected to the All-Rookie Second Team. While the Spurs have a few decent pieces in Sochan, Devin Vassell, and Keldon Johnson, drafting Wembanyama would give them a true centerpiece that they can build around going forward. With Popovich likely set to retire at some point in the next few years, it would be somewhat prophetic for the Spurs to land the top pick, giving the Hall of Famer a chance to teach Wemby for the first few seasons of his career. After all, the only other times the Spurs had the number one pick, they selected Duncan and David Robinson, both Hall of Famers who helped lead the Spurs to multiple NBA Championships.
Charlotte Hornets (27-55)
Odds at #1 - 12.5%
The Hornets have easily the most exciting player that could be potentially paired with Wemby in LaMelo Ball. After Ball’s season ended due to a fractured ankle in late February, there wasn’t much reason to tune into Hornets basketball. Although the Hornets were decently competitive through Ball’s first two seasons, making the Play-In Tournament both years, the future now looks uncertain in Charlotte. Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier are set to make over $54 million next year and they are already set to be over the NBA’s Salary Cap according to Spotrac. Landing Wembanyama would create one of the most exciting pick-and-roll combinations with Ball, who is one of the league’s most ambitious and creative passers. What Charlotte would eventually build around the duo would still be a major question, but at the very least, they would have arguably two of the most exciting young players in the league.
Portland Trail Blazers (33-49)
Odds at #1 - 10.5%
As a diehard Blazers fan, the 10.5% chance that Victor Wembanyama could be playing in Portland next season is what I dream about every night. The Blazers once again find themselves in the lottery despite the incredible play of Damian Lillard, the franchise’s all-time leading scorer who was selected to the All-NBA Third Team after averaging over 32 points per game this season. The franchise has essentially been in limbo since the passing of owner, Paul Allen, in 2018, with no real sense of direction despite having one of the best players in the league. The Blazers have two paths they can choose moving forward. The first would be to trade Lillard, a seven-time All-Star who is already 32 years old and still has four years and over $215 million left on his contract, building around the young core of Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. The other option would be to go all in on the remaining prime years Lillard has, potentially trading future draft picks and either Simons or Sharpe to acquire veterans who can help the team win now.
If the Blazers don’t land the number one pick, there is a strong possibility that they end up trading their pick in an attempt to help Lillard, so there is a lot riding on this lottery for the future of the franchise. Securing the top pick, and with it the rights to Victor Wembanyama, would go a long way toward solving the defensive problems that have plagued so many Lillard-led teams. Wemby would be an instant defensive upgrade at the center position over Jusuf Nurkić, who the league seems to have passed by, especially following the broken leg he suffered at the end of the 2019 season. If the Blazers could somehow figure out how to move off of Nurkić’s contract, which still has 3 years and over $54 million, they could build a serious contender around Dame and Wemby if they can execute the right trades, the only problem with that plan is Portland’s utter inability to make said trades in recent years.
Orlando Magic (34-48)
Odds at #1 - 9%
The Magic have one of the brightest futures out of any of the teams here in the lottery, built around the dynamic forward duo of Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. Banchero, last year’s top overall draft pick, collected 98 out of 100 first-place votes for Rookie of the Year while averaging over 20 ppg on the season. Wagner, meanwhile, averaged over 18 ppg in his second season, improving his efficiency metrics across the board. After a slow start to the season, with a 5-20 record through their first 25 games, the Magic showed significant improvement as the season went along, with a 29-28 record to close out the season. Adding Wembanyama to a core built around Banchero, Wagner, Markelle Fultz, Bol Bol, and Wendell Carter Jr. would likely have them ready to contend for a playoff spot as early as next season, especially if Banchero can make a second-year jump. Playing next to a big like Carter, who weighs in at 270 lbs, would be beneficial to Wemby, as Carter could match up against the bigger post players while Wemby uses his length to be a disrupter off the ball.
Indiana Pacers (35-47)
Odds at #1 - 6.8%
The Pacers actually got off to a hot start last season, with a 23-18 record over the first half of the season, led by first-time All-Star Tyrese Haliburton and Bennedict Mathurin, who was one of the favorites for Rookie of the Year. Unfortunately, a string of injuries limited Haliburton to only 17 games over the second half of the season, and the team dropped 29 of their last 41 games, falling completely out of the playoff race.
Haliburton is one of the league’s most dynamic playmakers, averaging over 10 assists per game since getting traded to the Pacers at the 2022 trade deadline, and he would be one of the best possible people Wemby could be paired with to start his career. Additionally, the idea of a Wemby and Myles Turner-led frontcourt is an idea that should scare any NBA player with hopes of driving to the hoop against the Pacers over the next couple of seasons.
Washington Wizards (35-47)
Odds at #1 - 6.7%
The Wizards might be the only team that is truly in no man's land at this point. They don’t have any promising young players they can look to as the future of their franchise, drafting players like Johnny Davis in the top 10, who already looks like a bust after just one season. In addition to the lack of young talent, they also owe Bradley Beal over $150 million over the next three years, which doesn’t even include his $57 million player option for the 2026-27 season. Landing Wemby would give Washington a real sense of direction for the first time since the peak of their John Wall-lead teams. At that point their best path forward would likely be to move off of Beal’s contract for a haul of future draft picks, and to trade Kristaps Porzingis’ expiring contract at the deadline, going all in on a tank that would give Wemby every opportunity to develop his game.
Utah Jazz (37-45)
Odds at #1 - 4.5%
After being projected as one of the league’s worst teams going into last season, the Jazz ended up having a surprisingly good season led by first-year head coach, Will Hardy, and first-time All-Star and Most Improved Player, Lauri Markkanen. They are set up with one of the brightest futures in the league right now, having acquired eight first-round picks and three pick swaps while trading away the core of their previous playoff teams, Donavan Mitchell, Rody Gobert, and Mike Conley. Just Walker Kessler alone would have been a win for the Jazz in the Rudy Gobert trade, so the four first-round picks they got back in that deal are just a bonus at this point. Kessler proved to be an elite rim-protector in his first season, making All-Rookie First Team and finishing third in Rookie of the Year voting while averaging the fourth-most blocks per game in the league. Kessler and Wembanyama playing in the same frontcourt would have the potential to be a Duncan-Robinson or Olajuwon-Sampson level shot-blocking duo. Building around a Markkanen-Kessler-Wembanyama frontcourt would be a dangerous sight for the league, especially considering the draft capital that Utah has over the next couple of seasons to add to their core.
Dallas Mavericks (38-44)
Odds at #1 - 3%
The fact that there’s even a 3% chance that Victor Wembanyama could be playing on the same team as Luka Dončić next season is ridiculous to think about, yet here we are. After a total collapse over the back half of the season, going 5-11 in games that Dončić played with Kyrie Irving, the Mavs found themselves out of even the Play-In and picking in the lottery for the first time since Dončić has been with the team. With Irving being an unrestricted free agent this offseason, it’s likely that Dallas will have to rebuild their team around Dončić, who is still a consensus top-five player in the world and only 24 years old. The chance to get Wemby would instantly create one of the best one-two punches in the league for the next decade, as his elite rim protection would cover up Dončić’s shortcomings on defense while also creating a dangerous pick-and-roll combination. Dallas would still have a lot to figure out roster-wise, but just Wemby and Dončić alone would be a terrifying thing for the league over the next decade.
Chicago Bulls (40-42)
Odds at #1 - 1.8%
The Bulls are another team stuck in limbo who will have to answer some serious questions about their plans for the future during this offseason. It seems like the DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine core has reached its ceiling, and they could either decide to blow it up, trading their stars away for future assets, or running it back, likely maxing out as a Play-In team. Getting Wembanyama would give the Bulls a chance to get a fresh start, as they could trade DeRozan and LaVine for a haul of draft picks, and give Wemby ample time to develop his game as the centerpiece of their franchise.
Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42)
Odds at #1 - 1.7%
The Thunder surprised everyone last season by making the Play-In in a season most people thought was over when it was announced that their number two pick, Chet Holmgren, would miss the entire season with a foot injury in August. They were led by a breakout season from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who averaged over 31 ppg en route to a First Team All-NBA selection and fifth-place MVP finish. In addition to Shai’s incredible season, OKC saw a big sophomore jump from Josh Giddey and a surprise second-place Rookie of the Year finish from Jalen Williams, the 12th overall selection from last year's draft. The core they have built around Shai, Giddey, Williams, and Holmgren already has one of the highest ceilings in the league, and potentially adding Wembanyama to that would absolutely shatter that ceiling. The 6’6” Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams and 6’8” Giddey give them incredible length on the perimeter, and adding Wemby to what people think Holmgren can be as a rim protector would give them a potentially terrifying defense.
Toronto Raptors (41-41)
Odds at #1 - 1%
After deciding to part ways with head coach Nick Nurse, who led them to the 2019 NBA Championship with the help of Kawhi Leonard, it looks like General Manager, Masai Ujiri will likely be looking towards a rebuild for his team moving forward. There are still talented pieces in Toronto, like Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and 2022 Rookie of the Year, Scottie Barnes, but as a group, it’s hard to see where they stand going forward. There were serious trade talks surrounding VanVleet and Anunoby ahead of February’s deadline, and there is a strong likelihood that either one or both of them gets moved in the offseason. Barnes was somewhat disappointing in his second season, not improving on or regressing in many aspects of his game, but there is still the obvious potential that made him the fourth overall pick of the 2021 NBA Draft. Siakam is the biggest question, as going towards a full rebuild would likely include trading him, and as a two-time All-NBA selection, the Raptors would get a haul for him. If the Raptors could somehow magically land the top overall pick, I could see them trying to build around Wembanyama, Siakam, and Barnes while moving around their other pieces, but if not, I think it will be a long offseason in Toronto, filled with tough decisions for Ujiri.
New Orleans Pelicans (42-40)
Odds at #1 - 0.5%
The Pelicans were off to a hot start last season, with a 26-17 record through their first 43 games before a 10-game losing streak and yet another injury to Zion Williamson derailed their season. After a tough series that pushed the top-seeded Phoenix Suns to six games in the first round of the 2022 playoffs that the Pelicans played without Zion, there was lots of hope for the 2023 season, as he would theoretically add on to the talents of Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum. Williamson, the number one pick in the 2019 NBA Draft, has now only played in 114 of the 308 games that the Pelicans have played since drafting him. And while he is one of the league’s most exciting players when healthy, he has struggled to consistently be healthy.
At this point, New Orleans seems like they need to consolidate their roster going forward. Thanks to trades that sent previous stars, Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday out of town, they had a surplus of draft picks that netted them talented players like Herb Jones, Trey Murphy III, and Dyson Daniels, but it also left them without enough minutes to go around for everybody. If they could somehow land Wemby, he would be the perfect compliment to Zion, spacing the floor for him on offense and making up for his lackluster defense with his elite rim protection. The Pelicans have already built a core that has the potential to contend in the Western Conference, pending Zion’s health, but adding Wembanyama would take them to the next level, and would arguably make them one of the favorites to win it all next season.
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