Following the release of the College Football Playoff rankings on Tuesday afternoon, the stage is now set for championship weekend. There are currently eight Power Five teams with at least 11 wins, taking up the top eight spots in the CFP rankings, and all but No. 6 Ohio State, who lost last weekend at No. 2 Michigan, are set to compete for their conference titles on Friday or Saturday.
Oregon currently sits fifth after Tuesday’s rankings, and will need to beat No. 3 Washington in the final Pac-12 Championship Game in Las Vegas on Friday to have a chance to compete for a national title. If the Ducks win, they are likely in. After nearly getting the help they needed last weekend, with No. 4 Florida State, No. 8 Alabama, and the Huskies squeaking past their in-state rivals, Oregon will still need some things to fall its way in order to guarantee a spot in the final four-team CFP before next year’s expansion to a 12-team format.
Assuming that Oregon wins this weekend, let’s break down the Ducks' chances to reach their second CFP.
SEC Championship: No. 1 Georgia vs No. 8 Alabama
If Georgia wins, they are in. The Bulldogs are the top-ranked team in the country. They are undefeated this year, on a 29-game win streak, and the back-to-back defending national champs. Needless to say, this team is pretty good. Even if they lose there’s still a significant chance that they will be in regardless, as it would only be their first loss of the season, and the committee would still see their pedigree as that of a title contender.
Bama on the other hand, needs to win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Their only loss this season was to Texas, who, in week two, went into Tuscaloosa as the No. 11 team in the country and upset the third-ranked Crimson Tide in front of their home crowd. This early-season loss is why they still slot behind the Longhorns three months later, and face an uphill battle toward title contention. A win would almost certainly put them in, as the SEC champion has never missed the playoff. Alabama has only missed two playoffs, 2019 and 2022, and missing out this year would be the first time the program will have not made the playoff in consecutive years since the CFP’s introduction in 2014.
Georgia will likely be in even with a loss, meaning that if Bama can pull off the upset, the SEC will get two playoff teams, lowering Oregon’s chance at an appearance. The Ducks will be rooting for Georgia to hold on to the top spot to prevent the Crimson Tide from sneaking up from behind.
Big Ten Championship: No. 2 Michigan vs No. 16 Iowa
After beating its hated rival, Ohio State for the third straight year, Michigan is looking to keep its winning ways by making its third consecutive CFP. Winning against Iowa puts the undefeated Wolverines into the playoff, likely as the No. 2 seed behind Georgia. Michigan will be getting head coach, Jim Harbaugh, back this week after he missed the last three games due to a suspension imposed by the Big Ten after their sign-stealing scandal.
Iowa somehow beating Michigan would be the ultimate disaster scenario for the Big Ten, as it would leave the conference with two one-loss teams, but a two-loss conference champion. Despite a strong defense that allowed only 12.2 points per game, Iowa's putrid offense will likely prevent them from making this game a contest.
Michigan is a heavy favorite in this game, and will likely win by double-digits, but that shouldn’t stop Duck fans from rooting for a Hawkeye upset that could leave the Big Ten out of the playoff, and clear a path for Oregon to get in.
ACC Championship: No. 4 Florida State vs No. 15 Louisville
Florida State survived a first-half scare from Florida to remain undefeated, moving up to fourth in the CFP rankings following Ohio State’s loss. The Seminoles have long been viewed as the weakest of the undefeated teams this season, playing in an ACC conference that saw them only play one team who made this week's top 25 (No. 22 Clemson). The biggest win on their schedule is a week one victory over LSU (currently No. 13). Despite their undefeated record, the thing that has people doubting the Seminoles is that starting quarterback, Jordan Travis was lost for the season after suffering a severe leg injury in Florida State’s blowout win over North Alabama. The Seminoles will be relying on junior, Tate Rodemaker, who last week went 12-for-25 with 134 yards while leading them past Florida last week.
Before last weekend’s upset loss to Kentucky, Louisville had an outside chance at sneaking into the playoff. If they beat Florida State, they would have been a one-loss conference champion, but after a narrow loss to their in-state rivals, will only have the chance to play spoiler this weekend. The Cardinals had a relatively comparable schedule to Florida State, with wins over Notre Dame and NC State, who currently rank 17th and 19th, respectively, but a mid-season loss at Pitt is the lone blemish on their conference schedule.
If Florida State wins, they have to be in, as an undefeated Power Five conference champ has never been left out of the playoff. But a win is not a guarantee for the Seminoles, as they’re only favored by a slim margin, and are now playing without their leader in Travis. Oregon will be rooting for a Louisville upset, as it makes things less complicated for the Ducks, but they don’t necessarily need it, as the final four could be the undefeated teams: Georgia, Michigan, and Florida, with a 12-1 Oregon as the four-seed.
Big 12 Championship: No. 7 Texas vs No. 18 Oklahoma State
When Texas upset Alabama in early September, it jumped them into playoff contention. The only blemish on their record is a loss to No. 12 Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry in October, but that has held them back all season, ranking behind Oregon in every CFP poll so far this year. They faltered slightly after their loss to the Sooners, a period that featured an injury to quarterback, Quinn Ewers, and a near loss to No. 23 Kansas State, eking out a win in overtime. The Longhorns finished their season strong though, with a 57-7 beatdown of Texas Tech in their last Big 12 matchup before Texas heads to the SEC next year.
Oklahoma State ruined Oklahoma’s playoff chances when they handed the No. 9 Sooners their second loss of the season in early November, and are now trying their best to spoil Texas’ postseason dreams. The Cowboys’ season has been an up-and-down story of the highs of beating their in-state rivals, but the lows of losses to South Alabama and UCF by a combined score of 78-10 — those teams each finished the season 6-6.
Texas is the most direct competitor that Oregon has for the playoff, as they will most likely both be one-loss conference champions with similar resumes. The question for the committee will come down to what they value more: strength of wins or losses. Texas’ win at Alabama is the best win that either team has, but Oregon’s loss to No. 3 Washington compares favorably to the Longhorns’ defeat at the hands of Oklahoma. If Oklahoma State can pull off the upset, it will relieve Duck fans of the stresses of waiting for the committee’s decision, but Oregon will likely have to wait until Sunday’s final rankings to know if their championship dreams will still be alive.
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