It was always going to be these two teams. The Kansas City Chiefs, a dynasty in the making led by the best player in the world, who no one could dethrone even in a down year by their standards. And the San Francisco 49ers, led by football’s greatest offensive mind, who have been the league’s most dominant team all season. Despite the doubts we had in them or our beliefs in other teams, deep down, we all knew that when it came down to it, the 49ers' incredibly talented roster and the sheer force that is Patrick Mahomes would eventually come through. So here we are, just like it was always meant to be, with the Chiefs and the 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII.
Keys to the Game
Brandon Aiyuk vs L’Jarius Sneed:
Despite Aiyuk and Sneed being considered good before this year, 2023 was a coming-out party for both of them. After reaching the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career in 2022, Aiyuk emerged as one of the league's best deep threats this season. He finished 2023 with 75 catches for 1,342 yards and seven touchdowns, being selected to the All-Pro Second Team. He increased his yards per reception from 13.3 across his first three seasons up to 17.9 this year, good for second-best in the NFL, while his 3.01 yards per route run and 14 receptions over 20 yards have both ranked in the top five amongst wide receivers. When throwing to Aiyuk this year, Brock Purdy has had a 126.8 passer rating, 13 points higher than his league-leading mark of 113.0. This showed up in full on his incredible 51-yard catch in the NFC Championship Game that bounced off Kindle Vildor’s facemask before he laid out to secure the explosive play, setting himself up for a touchdown three plays later.
Meanwhile, Sneed has become one of the league’s best press-man corners, using the physicality of his 6-foot-1 frame to jam receivers at the line and disrupt their routes. This season, his 14 passes defended are the 8th most in the NFL, but his dominance comes in man coverage, ranking top 10 in the league with a 57.0 passer rating allowed when targeted in man coverage. He can absolutely eviscerate receivers at the line of scrimmage like he did with Tyreek Hill in the Wild Card Round.
San Francisco will likely use pre-snap motion to generate free releases for Aiyuk. Putting him in motion at the snap prevents Kansas City’s defenders from getting their hands on him as he releases to disrupt his route. Aiyuk has excelled against man coverage this year, ranking in the top 10 in yards, yards per reception, and yards per route run among receivers with at least 20 targets vs man coverage.
If Sneed can successfully press and disrupt Aiyuk, it would significantly limit the 49ers' ability to attack downfield in their passing game. While he has 21 targets over 20 yards downfield, no other Niner has more than 8. Sneed’s ability to potentially disrupt this could have massive implications for San Francisco’s ability to generate explosive plays in the passing game, something they have excelled at all season.
Fred Warner vs Travis Kelce:
While more attention has been placed on Kelce’s off-the-field life, he is still the Chiefs’ most important offensive player not named Patrick Mahomes. In his age-34 season, he finally looked like he was starting to slow down, finishing with less than 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since his first Pro Bowl season in 2015. Despite this, his 93 receptions and 984 receiving yards were both the most on the team, and once the playoffs started, there was no doubt that he was still elite. He caught seven of his 10 targets for 71 yards in the Chiefs’ frigid Wild Card win over the Dolphins. He grabbed five receptions for 75 yards while adding two touchdowns against the Bills, before dominating the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game, catching all 11 of his targets for 116 yards and a touchdown. Clearly, Kelce’s still got it, and his matchup with the best linebacker in the league should be fascinating to watch.
Over the last four years, no linebacker has been close to matching the dominance of Fred Warner, who was named a First-Team All-Pro in 2020, 2022, and 2023. Out of the 68 linebackers who played at least 500 snaps this season, he was one of only four linebackers to receive run defense and coverage grades above 80 from PFF, and his 80.5 passer rating allowed was tied for the third-lowest mark. There aren’t many linebackers across NFL history who possess his combination of instincts and athleticism.
Other than rookie standout, Rashee Rice, no other Chief had more than 500 receiving yards this season, so if Warner can shut down Kelce or at least make it more difficult for Mahomes to find him, it will throw a massive wrench into the Chiefs’ passing game. Kelce thrives over the middle of the field against zone coverage where he uses his knowledge of coverages and ESP-like connection with Mahomes to find holes in zones and wait for Mahomes to find him. This season, 64.7 percent of his total yards have come between the numbers, and his 703 receiving yards against zone coverage were the most among tight ends.
If anyone is going to be able to stick with Kelce over the middle it’s Warner, but Kelce has proven time and time again that he is ready for the big moments. In Super Bowl LIV and week seven of 2022, Kelce caught all five of his targets for 33 yards and a touchdown when defended by Warner. Kelce is also the NFL’s all-time leader in playoff receptions and trails only Jerry Rice in yards and touchdowns, and in his three Super Bowls so far, he’s caught 22 passes for 257 yards and two touchdowns.
49ers D-Line:
For a group that features 5 former first-rounders and seven Pro Bowl selections, the 49ers’ pass rushers have been largely underwhelming so far this year. Other than 2022 Defensive Player of the Year, Nick Bosa, there hasn’t been much pressure from other sources. Among pass rushers with at least 250 pass-rush snaps, Bosa ranks third in total pressures, ninth in pressure rate, and fifth in pass-rush win rate, per PFF, while no other Niner ranks in the top 40 in any of those stats. Bosa had 95 pressures, a 10.2 pressure percentage, and a 22.3 percent win rate, while Javon Hargrave, who ranked second on the team had 52 pressures, a 7.0 pressure percentage, and a 13.2 percent win rate.
Patrick Mahomes has been nearly unsackable throughout his career, with a career 11.2 pressure-to-sack conversion rate, a number that would rank second in the NFL and means that he has only been sacked on 11.2 percent of his pressured dropbacks. If there’s anyone who can bring him down it’s Bosa. During these teams’ matchups in Super Bowl LIV and week seven of 2022, Bosa pressured Mahomes 14 times for two sacks, good for a 14.3 pressure-to-sack conversion rate that’s above Mahomes’ career standard.
Bosa has a chance to completely disrupt the Chiefs' game plan, as he can get past just about any tackle in the league with ease. Kansas City’s starting tackles, Jawaan Taylor and Donovan Smith, gave up the eighth and 13th most pressure in the league, respectively. Bosa will spend more time matched up against Taylor, as he lined up across from the right tackle on 69.7 percent of his snaps this year. Taylor was also the NFL’s most penalized lineman this season, with 20 penalties in the regular season, as well as four in the playoffs so far.
In a radio interview last week, Bosa claimed that the Chiefs’ line holds, “a lot.” We’ll see how much motivation his trash talk gives the Chiefs, but it sure is entertaining no matter the outcome.
If the Niners can get pressure on Mahomes it will completely change the game for them defensively. We saw it firsthand in Super Bowl LV when the Buccaneers pressured Mahomes on 31 of his 56 dropbacks. He was still only sacked 3 times, but that pressure completely ruined the Chiefs’ game plan, with Mahomes only completing nine of his 26 passes for 78 yards and a pick, good for a 27.4 passer rating.
Additionally, while San Francisco’s defense seems like it has been elite against the run, having allowed the third least rushing yards, that can mostly be attributed to their offense being so good, which has forced their opponents to pass in order to catch up. They only rank 14th in rush yards allowed per attempt, which much better reflects their true talent. They are a good run defense, but not an elite one.
The Chiefs have traditionally been far more pass-heavy in the Mahomes era, but in recent weeks they have run the ball far more. Before Kansas City’s Week 10 bye, Isaiah Pacheco averaged 13.8 carries and 58.3 yards per game while scoring three touchdowns. But he upped that to 16.2 carries and 82 yards per game with four touchdowns over the second half of the season and 21 carries for 84.7 yards per game while adding three touchdowns in the playoffs.
Chris Jones:
Other than Aaron Donald, Jones has been the NFL’s most dominant interior pass rusher over the last half-decade. Since Jones’ 2018 breakout season where he made Second-Team All-Pro for the first time, his 67 sacks rank fourth among all players and second only to Donald among interior linemen. He has made six straight Pro Bowls, three All-Pro Second Teams, and two straight All-Pro First Teams in 2022 and 2023.
While George Karlaftis has been able to provide pressure off the edge, with his pressures only trailing Jones by 11, his 12.7 percent pass rush win rate falls well behind Jones’ mark of 18.9 that ranked 12th among pass rushers with at least 200 pass rush snaps.
Jones can line up all across the line and still be able to get to the quarterback. But with 11-time Pro Bowler, Trent Williams, at left tackle, the Chiefs will likely keep Jones lined up against right guard, Jon Feliciano, and right tackle, Colton McKivitz. Among the 68 guards with at least 300 pass-blocking snaps this year, Feliciano ranks 46th in pass-blocking efficiency. At the same time, McKivitz gave up the fourth most pressures among all tackles and ranked 63rd in pass-blocking efficiency out of the 74 tackles with at least 300 pass-blocking snaps, per PFF.
This season, Jones has spent just under half of his time on the inside, but on passing downs, the Chiefs will line him up on the edge to wreak havoc on opposing tackles. Jones’ pass-rushing ability will be a mismatch against anyone but Williams, but watch for him to line up against McKivitz when San Francisco needs to pass, especially since Jones will win that one-on-one matchup every time.
Jones has historically been a strong run defender on the inside, but this year his numbers have significantly regressed. His 59.9 run defense grade was by far the lowest of his career, and his 21 stops were 10 less than he had in 2022, both per PFF. He’s stepped these numbers up in the Playoffs, but in his age-29 season, he’s clearly conserving as much energy as possible for pass rushing.
The 49ers’ offensive dominance starts with their ability to run the ball. Led by 2023 Offensive Player of the Year, Christian McCaffrey, the Niners finished top five in the league in yards, touchdowns, yards per carry, and expected points added on the ground. A big part of this comes from the versatility of fullback, Kyle Juszczyck, who can line up anywhere on the field. This year, he’s almost evenly split his time between the backfield and tight end, while also lining up in the slot or out wide on 190 snaps. This puts defenses in a bind, as with the combined versatility of Juszczyck, McCaffrey, and tight end, George Kittle, San Francisco can just as easily line up in an empty spread formation and air it out or under center with two running backs to pound the rock. This restricts the defenses’ ability to match personnel, often giving the Niners an easy advantage to either pass or run.
Jones will be at full go against the run and pass from the jump with no more games to save his body for. I think that the Niners will try to involve him in as many actions as they can, with counter and trap runs to give pulling linemen a free hit on Jones to tire him out, keeping him from being at his best when they need to pass.
Kyle Shanahan vs Steve Spagnuolo:
These two are arguably the best minds on either side of the ball in all of football. Since Shanahan first started calling plays as the offensive coordinator for the Houston Texans in 2008, his teams have ranked in the top 10 in total offense 10 times, despite his starting quarterbacks including Matt Schaub, washed-up Donovan McNabb, Rex Grossman, Brian Hoyer, C.J. Beathard, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Nick Mullens. In that same period, he’s turned Steve Slaton, Alfred Morris, Devonta Freeman, and Christian McCaffrey into 1,000-yard rushers. His system, driven by wide zone runs and play-action passes, has turned mediocre talent into high-powered offensive machines time and time again. So it makes sense that with the talent on San Francisco’s roster this season that they ranked first in just about every advanced metric, while also finishing top three in both yards and points.
As the defensive coordinator for the 2007 New York Giants, Spagnuolo helped them upset the best scoring offense of all-time at that point in Super Bowl XLII, holding the New England Patriots to only 14 points, by far their lowest of their record-setting season. He followed that up with a failed head coaching stint in Saint Louis, bouncing around between New Orleans and New York as a coordinator before finding his home in Kansas City.
In Spagnuolo’s first year in 2019, he turned things around for the Chiefs’ defense. In the previous season, the Chiefs ranked 24th in points and 31st in yards allowed, but Spagnuolo improved those numbers to seventh and 17th, respectively. With the best player in the world at quarterback, those numbers were good enough to win two Super Bowls, with the defense always hanging near the middle of the pack.
This season, Spagnoulo’s defense has been nothing short of elite, ranking second in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. Despite some struggles from Mahomes and the offense this season, scoring by far the fewest points of the Mahomes era, their elite defense has kept them afloat by only allowing 16.8 points per game in the regular season. They’ve only improved on that in the Playoffs, holding the third, fourth, and sixth highest-scoring teams to an average of 13.7 points.
Besides Chris Jones, the strength of this Chiefs’ defense is their defensive backs. L’Jarius Sneed is a lockdown corner, Trent McDuffie was a First-Team All-Pro at nickel in his second year, and Justin Reid and Chamarri Conner are some of the most underrated defenders in the league. The Chiefs are at their best when they can put five defensive backs on the field, sticking with receivers man-to-man, allowing their pass rushers to get home to the quarterback.
Meanwhile, the Niners are best when they play with heavy personnel, using the Juszczyck’s versatility to their advantage. On first downs, when teams are at their most neutral in personnel usage, San Francisco has lined up in 21 personnel, featuring two running backs, one tight end, and two receivers, or 22 personnel, with two running backs, two tight ends, and one receiver, 50 percent of the time this year.
When facing two running backs on the field this year, the Chiefs matched with their base defense, with four linemen, three linebackers, and four defensive backs, 74.6 percent of the time, which is not the way they want to play.
I think a lot of this game will come down to the Chiefs’ defense being able to defend the run in their nickel and dime packages and defend the pass in their base set, which heavily plays to the Niners' advantage. Additionally, San Francisco has been the most successful team running the ball from 11 personnel this season while Kansas City’s defense ranked 31st in rush defense success rate when facing 11 personnel.
Spanguolo will try to confuse Purdy with late rotations in coverage and by bringing extra blitzers. Purdy is an aggressive passer by nature and can be prone to turnovers. Out of the 39 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, Purdy had the 14th highest turnover-worthy-play rate at 3.5 percent, a number that’s not terrible but shows he can be a bit careless with the football at times. When he was under pressure that number jumped up to 5.5 percent while his passer rating dropped to 85.1, well below his standard.
Prediction
Regardless of the outcome, this is going to be a great game. Every matchup is a strength-on-strength, and there will be a ridiculous amount of talent all over the field. San Francisco’s game plan will be to run the ball against the Chiefs’ weak run defense, dictating what personnel Kansas City can put on the field while controlling the clock. The more they can wear down the Chiefs’ defense early, the more tired they will be late in the game when San Francisco needs to pass. They will need to get after Mahomes and try to make him uncomfortable in the pocket. The Chiefs will likely send extra help toward Bosa in the form of double teams and chips, leaving the Niners' other linemen with opportunities to win one-on-one. Someone other than Bosa will need to step up for their defense.
Kansas City will try to get Pacheco going early, establishing the run to make Mahomes’ life easier. Pacheco has been a monster through the playoffs, and his angry running style will be tough for the Niners to stop. Mahomes hasn’t put up monster numbers so far in the playoffs, but he’s been extremely efficient, completing 68 percent of his passes while tossing four touchdowns with no turnovers. He’s made every big play when his team has needed it but hasn’t put them in any detrimental situations.
Even with how elite the Chiefs’ defense has been this year, I think the advantage still goes to the Niners' offense thanks to their versatility. They’ve been able to move the ball on just about everybody with machine-like efficiency. The one area I think the Chiefs can take advantage of is with turnovers. With playmakers like Sneed, Jones, Karlaftis, and Reid, Kansas City has plenty of talent who can make a game-changing play at any moment. San Francisco only turned the ball over 18 times this year, but 13 of those came in their five losses. If the Chiefs can get the Niners to turn the ball over at least once, I think their offense can control the game well enough to outlast San Francisco.
My official prediction is a 27-24 Kansas City victory, with the Chiefs cementing themselves as a dynasty with their third Super Bowl in five years, and Patrick Mahomes taking home his third Super Bowl MVP, joining Montana and Brady in the inner circle of Canton as the only players with at least three Super Bowl MVPs.
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