EUGENE, Ore. — For the first time since the 2016-17 season, Oregon Women's Basketball (9-7) is 0-3 to start conference play. That year, with the help of a certain freshman guard named Sabrina Ionescu, third-year head coach Kelly Graves was able to turn the Ducks' season around.
They finished with an 8-7 record through the rest of conference play and lost in the semi-finals of the Pac-12 Tournament, which was enough to earn them a 10 seed in the NCAA Tournament. With the Ducks' first tournament appearance since 2005, they gave fans in Eugene the best tournament run in program history, reaching the Elite Eight for the first time before falling to the top-seeded UConn Huskies.
"That team in 2017, we started three freshmen and two sophomores that year," said Graves. "So it took a little bit of time, and then they caught fire in the NCAA Tournament and the Pac-12 Tournament. We hope that same thing can happen. But, just with young teams… they can't grow up overnight."
While this team may not have an Ionescu, widely considered the greatest player in program history, there is still plenty of young talent on this team.
Four of the team's top five leading scores are underclassmen, including two true freshmen, Sofia Bell and Sarah Rambus. Overall, 72 percent of Oregon's minutes and 73 percent of their points have come from underclassmen. These numbers contrast the 44 percent of minutes and 43 percent of points from underclassmen on last year's veteran-laden team.
Despite the slow start in conference play, this season is about building and incremental improvement over time as this young team develops. It must also be kept in mind that the Ducks, unfortunately, started their conference schedule with an incredibly tough series of matchups.
"When you look at it, the three teams we played — this is how tough our conference is — the three teams we played were 34-0, I think, outside of playing each other," Graves said. "I don't think a lot of people expected us to win. Even at our best, it would've been a challenge and a difficult trip, but at the same time, we can't be satisfied with losing, ever."
UCLA and USC are both top 10 teams in the country, with the one loss between them being the Trojans' narrow defeat to their unbeaten cross-town rivals. Oregon State, meanwhile, went undefeated in their non-conference schedule, including a 28-point win over a Santa Clara team that handed the Ducks their biggest home loss in over a decade.
One positive outcome of the early conference schedule was the development of Phillipina Kyei as a passer. She has seen many double teams in the post this season due to her strength as an inside scorer, which has led to her getting more opportunities to kick out to her teammates for assists, tying her career high with five against USC.
"Against USC, I was impressed," Graves said of Kyei. "She was getting doubled every time she touched the ball. So what does she do? She has a nice scoring night, a good rebounding night, and she led us in assists with five. She's really coming… I'm so proud of her and the work she's putting in."
"I take it as a good thing," said Kyei on the amount of double teams she's faced recently. "Usually, if you have to get double-teamed, it means you're good. Instead of taking it the bad way, you just got to figure out other ways to play through your team."
"Honestly, I did not know I was getting that much assists, I just find the open person. Obviously, that was not my role before, but now, I've just taken it in. You're a passer, you've got to hit people wide open."
Oregon will be looking to bounce back from their three-game skid to start Pac-12 play against the Arizona State Sun Devils (8-7). Arizona State, along with the Ducks and Washington State, is one of three Pac-12 teams to have gone winless so far in conference play, dropping games to Arizona, Utah, and Colorado.
"The difference is, their three games have all been at home, and we've had three games on the road," said Graves. "So they're definitely gonna be hungry, this is gonna be a battle, but if we play well, I'm confident it's a game we can go out and win."
The Sun Devils went 8-4 in their non-conference schedule, which included three games against teams the Ducks also played, Grand Canyon, Santa Clara, and UTSA. Both teams lost to Santa Clara and beat UTSA, while Oregon beat GCU and Arizona State lost to them. Across those games, the Ducks averaged 58.3 points per game while allowing an average of 64.3 points, mostly coming from an 89-point defensive blunder against a Santa Clara team that was on fire from three, while the Sun Devils averaged 61.3 points while allowing an average of 62 points across those contests.
Arizona State ranks last in the Pac-12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, just behind the Ducks in both, and is the only Pac-12 team to have a negative net rating currently. Despite over 57 percent of their scoring output coming from a trio of guards, Jalyn Brown, Jaddan Simmons, and Trayanna Crisp, they are the only team in the conference not averaging double-digit assists, trailing the next worst team, Washington, by more than four assists, the same gap as the one between the 11th ranked Huskies and sixth-ranked Washington State.
While they turn the ball over the third least in the Pac-12, their dreadful assist numbers mean that their 0.7 assist-to-turnover ratio still ranks dead last in the conference, with Arizona being the only other team with more turnovers than assists.
Oregon has struggled to guard the three-point line this year, giving up 15 more makes on 76 more attempts than any other team in the Pac-12, but should match up well against Arizona State. On the season, the Sun Devils have hit 30.8 percent of their three-point attempts, just barely above the Ducks' 30.7 percent, but it has come on a low volume as well, as they are last in the conference in both makes and attempts from long distance.
"Either team that can make some threes, soften up the defense a little bit, goes a long way," Graves said. "I think we're pretty good inside, and if we can make some threes and spread that defense out a little bit, I think it'll help our inside game so that we're not double and triple-teamed inside."
"Something's gotta give, one of us two teams is gonna have to make some threes if we expect to be competitive against anybody."
"That's a good thing," Kyei said of the Sun Devils' three-point shooting. "It's not a threat if they want to drive to the rim. Good luck with that, that's all I can say."
Oregon's next two games, against Arizona State and Arizona, will present the Ducks with their best opportunity for a conference win that they may have all season. Arizona State is the only team with fewer losses than Oregon, and Arizona only has one more win than the Ducks.
After this homestand, the Ducks will head to the Bay to play No. 8 Stanford and Cal. While the NCAA's NET rankings have Cal as the third worst team in the Pac-12, they still rank 44 spots ahead of Oregon. After that, the only game the Ducks will play against a team not currently ranked in the top 25 before they head to Seattle to take on Washington in late February will be a rematch against Oregon State, who already handed them their first conference loss of the season.
Coming out of this weekend with a win is essential if Oregon wants to have any chance at competing late in the season.
"I just think consistency. Game to game, possession to possession, quarter to quarter," Graves said is what he's trying to emphasize to his team. "We've shown some good basketball at times, and then we've played some not-so-good basketball."
"There are wins in our future, I know that. We've just gotta play better. We have to make the most of our opportunities. Friday night presents us a great opportunity."
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