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Writer's pictureJohn Evans

Jesse Winker is Hitting .154 to Start the Season, but You Shouldn't Be Worried About Him


Jesse Winker is having a very confusing season at the plate so far this year. After finally making his first All-Star game with the Reds last season, his first year with the Mariners has seemingly not lived up to expectations. If you look at his .154/.338/.173 slashline, or 62 OPS+, you would see a player struggling to start the season, but if you look beyond the basic stats, at his advanced metrics, you will come to see that Winker has possibly been the most unlucky player in the entire league this season.

His Baseball Savant page contains many contradictory numbers, as there is a significant difference between his actual and expected stats, which are based on the launch angles and exit velocities of his batted balls. So far this season, Winker ranks third, third, and fourth in the gap between his actual and expected batting average, slugging percentage, and weighted on-base average. He has ranked near the bottom of the league this season in many traditional stats, but it has mostly been due to bad luck, as his xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA all rank in the top 30% of the league. He is hitting the ball well, he has just been unlucky with where it lands so far, with his batting average on balls in play being ranked 13th worst in the league.

Winker also currently leads the American League in walks, and has shown tremendous discipline at the plate, only chasing at 17.9% of pitches outside of the strike zone, compared to the 28.3% league average, putting him in the 87th percentile among all hitters this year. Despite his struggles, he has been able to remain patient at the plate, waiting for a good pitch to hit, and attacking when he sees it.

He struggled to start the Mariners’ first homestand of the season, only recording three hits across the first seven games. But he was finally able to get it going in the last two games against the Royals, going 2/6 with a walk and four RBIs, including a two-run double to break open the first game in the 8th, and an RBI single in the 12th inning to walk-off the second.

As the Mariners head to Tampa to start their second road-trip of the year, Winker will look to carry the momentum he was able to find in Seattle into strong series against the Rays, Marlins, and Astros. With his BABIP luck hopefully on the upswing, he will be able to return to the All-Star slugger that all Mariners fans were hoping they would see when he was acquired from Cincinnati.


All stats are as of 4/25/22

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