Despite first-year head coach Mike Macdonald leading the Seahawks to 10 wins on the back of the best defense Seattle has seen since 2017 — the last season that Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, and Richard Sherman shared the field — the Hawks still found themselves outside of the NFC playoff picture by the time that January rolled around.
While former Super Bowl-winning head coach Pete Carroll’s success had been built around one of the NFL’s best defenses of all time led by the aforementioned Legion of Boom, things had begun to slip towards the end of his time in the Pacific Northwest. After Carroll hired Clint Hurt as his defensive coordinator ahead of the 2022 season, his unit dropped to 31st in expected points added (EPA) per play over the next two years, which would ultimately be Carroll’s final two leading the Hawks.
The mastermind behind the NFL’s second-most efficient defense in 2023, Macdonald left Baltimore to replace Carroll in Seattle in 2024, and in his first season, elevated the Hawks’ defense to a top-10 unit in the league. Improvements on the defensive side of the ball were a must, but with Macdonald also came a new offensive coordinator, Ryan Grubb, who had spent the previous season calling plays for the University of Washington’s high-powered attack.
After just one season leading the offense, Seattle decided to part ways with Grubb, as the offense ranked among the bottom half of the league in EPA/play. Macdonald cited a difference in “alignment” and “vision” as the reason the offense wasn’t heading in the direction he wanted it to go.
When Macdonald was in Baltimore in 2023, the Ravens' offense lined up in 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end, and three receivers) at the fourth-lowest rate in the league. More than half of the time that Baltimore’s offense was on the field, the Ravens were out there with either an extra running back (normally fullback Patrick Ricard) or tight end (with Isaiah Likely joining Mark Andrews). This gave Baltimore more big bodies to block in the run game, which helped lead to the league’s sixth-most efficient rushing attack.
With Grubb’s success at Washington being built upon a three-headed monster at receiver, it was expected that with D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, his Seahawk offense would rely similarly on three-receiver packages.
Grubb lined the Seahawks up in 11 personnel looks on 77 percent of their snaps this past season, the third-highest rate of any team. While the Hawks may have been loaded with talent at receiver, this put more stress on one of the worst offensive line units in the league, who weren’t given any extra blocking help.
Blame for Seattle’s offensive struggles could certainly be placed on the line’s poor play and quarterback Geno Smith’s propensity for turnovers at the worst time, but what it ultimately came down to was an inability to consistently run the football. Despite spending second-round picks on running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet in back-to-back years, the Seahawks ranked 25th in EPA per rush and 21st in EPA per rush out of 11 personnel.
On Sunday, the Seahawks finally found their replacement for Grubb in Saints OC Klint Kubiak. Calling plays in New Orleans this past season, Kubiak featured a very different offensive profile to Grubb’s in Seattle — one that I believe better fits the Seahawks’ personnel and Macdonald’s vision for the future.
Let’s start with Kubiak’s personnel usage. Last season, the Saints had the second-lowest 11 personnel rate, only ahead of the Ravens. Instead, Kubiak opted for the NFL’s seventh-highest 12 personnel rate and the fourth-highest 21 and 13 personnel rates. If, as expected, Seattle cuts Lockett to save $17 million in cap space this offseason, that would give Kubiak a clear two-man duo of Metcalf and Smith-Njigba at receiver while putting an extra running back or tight end on the field. Additionally, the Seahawks have invested heavily at running back and tight end in recent years, drafting Walker and Charbonnet, signing Noah Fant to a contract extension, and selecting AJ Barner in the fourth round.
Not only should this personnel usage change benefit the running game, but it will give the Seahawks’ O-line additional assistance in pass protection as extra tight ends or running backs can stay in to pass protect or chip a defender before heading out for a route. Last season, the Saints' running backs and tight ends combined for 39 more snaps of pass protection than Seattle’s despite the Seahawks ranking fifth in pass rate and New Orleans ranking 16th.
Last season under Grubb, the Seahawks passed the ball at the ninth-highest rate on early downs but did so with the 21st-best efficiency. Even when they did try to run the ball, they ranked in the bottom half of the league in early down EPA per rush. This led to the Seahawks often finding themselves behind the chains on third down — 44 percent of Smith’s third-down pass attempts came with more than seven yards to go — and converting on only 36.7 percent of tries, 21st in the league.
Meanwhile, in New Orleans last season, Kubiak ran the ball at the eight-highest rate on early downs and did so with the 13th-best efficiency in the NFL. If he can get the Seahawks to commit to the run more on early downs and do so efficiently, it would put them in advantageous positions on third down and lead to a higher conversion rate.
Another thing that will help the Seahawks' attack will be putting Smith under center more. Coming from a college background, where quarterbacks taking snaps under center has become increasingly rare, Grubb was clearly most comfortable with Smith in the shotgun. Last season, the Seahawks took snaps from under center just 36.4 percent of the time which ranked 25th in the NFL while Kubiak’s Saints were one of just four teams to line up under center on over 50 percent of their snaps.
This lack of comfort under center showed up in the results as well. In Smith’s first two seasons as a Seahawk, he averaged 7.1 yards per attempt (YPA) from the shotgun but 8.5 from under center. With Grubb in 2024, it was 7.5 YPA from the gun but only 6.9 under center. Walker followed a similar pattern, averaging 3.8 yards per carry (YPC) on runs from the gun and 4.7 on runs from under center in his first two seasons, but 3.9 YPC on shotgun runs and 3.6 on under center runs in Grubb’s offense.
If Kubiak puts Smith under center more, not only will it open up the Hawks’ rushing attack, but their passing attack as opposing defenses load up to stop the run and are more likely to be fooled by play-action.
While there are still issues to address this offseason, namely on the offensive line, the Seahawks can certainly become a playoff team in 2025. With a full year of experience now under his belt, Macdonald will only continue to get better as a coach while improving his defense. The Seahawks have the talent at their skill positions on offense, and if they target the O-line with the 18th overall pick, could see drastic improvements on that side of the ball under Kubiak as they hope to return to the postseason.
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