1. Jalen Carter - Defensive Line, Georgia
6’3” 314 lbs
2022 Stats - 13 G, 32 Tk, 7 TFL, 3 Sk, 2 FF
Player Comp - Quinnen Williams
Strengths:
Jalen Carter is an absolute game-wrecker in the trenches. In 2021, playing for a Georgia defense that saw three of its linemen get drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft, Carter was easily their best player as a 20-year-old. He combines strength and speed in a way that is rarely seen on the interior of the defensive line, making him one of the most physically talented interior line prospects the NFL has seen in its history. During his time with the Bulldogs, Carter showed impressive versatility by lining up at different spots, attacking his opponents in a variety ways. He played everywhere from a one-tech, shaded to the outside shoulder of the center, all the way to a four-i, on the inside shoulder of the tackle, making life hell for everybody on the offensive line.
He has an incredibly explosive first step off the line, getting his massive hands into his opponent’s chest before they even know what has happened. Carter is strong enough that he can win with just a bull rush in many cases but also has a great swim move to counter when the offensive lineman gets too far out over their skis. He also plays with great pad level for an interior lineman, able to dip and rip under the punch from the offensive lineman to disrupt the quarterback.
While his stats as a pass rusher don’t look all too impressive, finishing with only three sacks each of the last two seasons, his value comes from the disruption he causes. Last season, he led all Power Five interior linemen in Pro Football Focus grade on “true pass sets,” and finished with the second-highest overall pass rush grade, only trailing Pitt’s Calijah Kancey, who at 281 lbs doesn’t provide nearly the same impact as Carter against the run. Even when he doesn’t get the sack himself, the pressure he creates up the middle makes life much easier for his teammates, flushing the QB out of the pocket and right into the waiting arms of rushers coming off the edge. Additionally, he is seemingly held on nearly every play, most going uncalled, which shows the amount of effort it takes to slow him down at all.
All the physical traits that make him a force as a pass rusher also apply to his value as a run defender. Last season, he ranked fourth among Power Five interior linemen in PFF’s run-defense grade, and led in stop percentage, meaning runs that were designated as a “failure” for the offense. His speed can get him into the backfield before the play has developed at all and allows him to chase down runners from the backside in a way that you don’t often see from someone his size.
Weaknesses:
The biggest concerns for Carter on the field are his low college production and questions about his stamina. As previously mentioned, Carter only had three sacks last season, a total that was bested by 31 different Power Five linemen. Additionally, over his last two seasons at Georgia, he only played on 40.4% of the total snaps that the Bulldog defense saw, raising concerns over his viability to maintain his incredible production as an every-down player at the next level.
On March 1, 2023, just before he was set to take the podium at the NFL Combine, an arrest warrant was issued for Carter by the Athens-Clarke County Police Department for his involvement in a January 15 car crash that killed one of his Georgia teammates and a team staff member. Carter was said to have been racing with the vehicle that crashed and faces misdemeanor charges of reckless driving and street racing. After the warrant was issued, Carter returned to Georgia and turned himself in to police, where he was booked and released on a $4,000 bond less than 20 minutes later.
Summary:
On the field, Jalen Carter is just about the perfect prospect NFL teams could ask for to anchor the interior of their defensive line. The on-field concerns I mentioned can mostly be chalked up to how stacked the Georgia defense was over the last two seasons, with linemen Travon Walker, Jordan Davis, and Devonte Wyatt all being drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft, and Nolan Smith currently being projected as a first-round pick in this year’s draft. Because of this, not as much was asked of Carter in terms of raw counting numbers, and he wasn’t needed to be on the field when there was so much talent at his position on the roster. He has every physical trait to be incredibly disruptive as both a pass rusher and run defender, which combined with his impressive technique for someone his age makes him someone who we will likely see on Pro Bowl rosters for the next decade.
2. Will Anderson Jr. - Edge, Alabama
6’4” 253 lbs
2022 Stats - 13 G, 51 Tk, 17 TFL, 10 Sk, 1 Int, 1 TD
Player Comp - Khalil Mack
Strengths:
Will Anderson is a wrecking ball off the edge. Despite his small stature, weighing in at 253 lbs at the NFL combine and being listed at only 235 lbs during his playing time at Alabama, he plays much bigger than that, regularly out-muscling offensive linemen who have upwards of 50 lbs on him. He is incredibly explosive off the line of scrimmage, getting his long arms into the chest of the tackle to bull rush them before they can get into their pass set. Anderson uses this speed to beat the tackle to the edge, dipping and ripping to make his way into the backfield and rattle the quarterback. Along with his speed rush to the outside and his bull rush straight through the chest of tackles, he counters with an inside swim move when the tackle sets too far to the outside or leans too far forward trying to counter Anderson’s strength. The speed he plays with also translates well to stunts and other d-line games, knifing in to create lanes for teammates or cutting through the ones that they create. The numbers back up what you see on tape as well, with Anderson ranking in the top 10 among Power Five edge rushers in pass-rush grade, pressure rate, and pass-rush win rate according to PFF.
Despite his talent as a pass rusher, his best overall asset might be his value as a defender against the run. During his time with the Crimson Tide, he was asked to play all over the line, ranging everywhere from a three-tech all the way out to a wide-nine, always playing bigger than his size. He uses his long arms to engage with the blocker while simultaneously keeping them at bay, reading the action going on in front of him before disengaging to attack the ball. When Alabama would line him up on the inside, he was able to eat up blocks like a defensive tackle, allowing his teammates to get to the ball carrier. His speed also plays well against the run, as he can slice through the tightest windows to get into the backfield, as well as chase down runners that look like they’re about to have the edge or break into the second level.
Weaknesses:
As I mentioned before, Anderson is generally undersized for the edge position, which could draw concerns as he won’t have the same natural athletic advantage that he did in college playing against the bigger, stronger, and more athletic players that the NFL has to offer. Because he is such a freak athletically, he can lose control at times, missing the quarterback or ball carrier after beating his blocker, last year finishing with an 18.6% missed tackle rate according to PFF. He will need to improve as a play finisher in the NFL to become a truly dominant force off the edge. Anderson also doesn’t have the same elite bend that other top-tier edge prospects like Von Miller and Miles Garret have had that allows them to post elite sack numbers, meaning sometimes he will overrun the pocket rather than arcing his pass-rush back towards the quarterback. He will need to work to improve the quality and variety of his pass-rush moves to make up for this.
Summary:
I easily see Anderson as the best edge prospect in this draft, just barely being edged out by Carter for my top overall spot. His physical tools will make him an instant impact player off the edge for whichever team gets the opportunity to draft him in the top five. If he can work to improve as a tackler and better develop his pass-rush arsenal, he could be someone we consistently see at the top of NFL sack leaderboards, all while being one of the league’s most impactful run defenders coming off the edge.
3. C.J. Stroud - Quarterback, Ohio State
6’3” 214 lbs
2022 Stats - 13 G, 66.3%, 3688 Yds, 41 TD, 6 Int, 47 Car, 108 Yds
Player Comp - Geno Smith
Strengths:
C.J. Stroud is a certified dimer, with impressive accuracy to all three levels of the field. He has the touch to hit receivers on the run downfield, dropping balls into a bucket from 50 yards out, lofting passes over the outstretched arms of defenders to a place only his receivers can reach, and the pinpoint accuracy to make impressive throws to windows that would be closed to most other quarterbacks. Per The Ringer’s Ben Solak, his 70.6% pinpoint accuracy rate was by far the best of the four QBs likely to be drafted in the first round. He has one of the best-looking deep balls you will see from any QB prospect, which is backed up by his 94.2 PFF grade on throws 20+ yards down the field. Additionally, his accuracy doesn’t waver when he is on the move, dotting receivers all over the field from designed bootlegs or while scrambling away from pressure.
Although he was often criticized for a lack of mobility during his time at Ohio State, I didn’t really see this come up as a problem for him too often on tape. While he isn’t necessarily going to be a read option threat like Anthony Richardson, he has plenty of escapability both inside and outside of the pocket. He navigates well in the pocket, stepping up to avoid pressure or escaping to try to make a play when needed. Stroud has the necessary speed to pick up the easy yards on the ground when they are given to him but is always looking downfield to try to find open receivers.
In addition to his impressive accuracy, Stroud has shown the mental toughness and skills that NFL teams desire from quarterback prospects. He makes throws with anticipation, hitting receivers straight out of their breaks, and has flashed the ability to use his eyes to manipulate the defense, looking off safeties to open up throwing lanes. Stroud had probably the best game of his career against his toughest opponent, throwing for 348 yards and four touchdowns against the back-to-back national champion Georgia Bulldogs in a narrow loss in the CFP semifinal. The most impressive part of this performance was his composure under the constant pressure he faced from the Georgia front, stepping up to scramble or make incredible throws to find receivers downfield.
Weaknesses:
Just like every QB to come out of Ohio State, there are questions about Stroud’s ability to operate without the talent and system that has surrounded him. During his time with the Buckeyes, Stroud likely played with four first-round receivers, with last year’s first and fourth-place finishers for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Garret Wilson and Chris Olave; Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who has a chance to be the first receiver off the board this year; and Marvin Harrison Jr., who is already projected to be a top 10 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. Along with that talent, both of his starting tackles from last season are projected to be first-round picks this year.
Ryan Day’s system is notorious for giving quarterbacks easy looks that don’t require them to really read the field. Stroud definitely faces questions surrounding his ability to read through progressions in order to find the best option, as most of the time his first or second option would be wide open either due to scheme or simple talent differential. He would get stuck on his first read for too long, bailing out of the pocket rather than progressing through his options if his main target wasn’t open. While he has sufficient arm talent, it is not on the level of Anthony Richardson or Will Levis. Additionally, his accuracy can waver at times when he saw pressure in his face, with his passes having a tendency to sail high over his target.
Summary:
Overall, I see Stroud as the highest-floor quarterback in this draft. He will be instantly capable of running a Shanahan-style west coast offense, where the reads are easy for him and he can use his pinpoint accuracy both in the pocket and on the move to hit receivers downfield on crossing routes. If he is surrounded with talent around him and a competent coaching staff who can help develop his weaknesses while emphasizing his strengths, I can easily see him being a top 10 QB in the league, and someone who will be a winning player for a long time.
4. Bryce Young - Quarterback, Alabama
5’10” 204 lbs
2022 Stats - 12 G, 64.5%, 3328 Yds, 32 TD, 5 Int, 49 Car, 185 Yds, 4 TD
Player Comp - Skinny Russell Wilson
Strengths:
If Bryce Young was 6’4” 225 lbs, I don’t think there would be any doubt that he would be the first overall pick in this year's draft. After leading Alabama to the National Championship game and taking home the Heisman Trophy in his first season as a starter, Young would follow up in 2022 by nearly leading a much worse Crimson Tide team to another playoff appearance and finishing sixth in Heisman voting. He plays with that Joe Burrow-esque cool to his game, never getting flustered and always remaining poised and in control no matter what he’s facing. Young has just about every trait you would want from a quarterback prospect, with every mental aspect the position requires, and a whippy arm that can make just about any throw. He is extremely instinctual as a playmaker, able to extend plays both inside and outside the pocket, sliding around to avoid pass rushers while keeping his eyes downfield. He is an accurate passer on the run but also does a great job at resetting his base when facing pressure so that he can deliver on-target passes to his receivers.
In addition to his ability to make plays outside the structure of the offense, Young also showcased a high-level ability to operate in structure. He does a good job pre-play, anticipating what he will see from the defense, setting protections and making the necessary adjustments. He plays with great anticipation overall, hitting receivers at the perfect moment, and is the best out of this year’s QB class at getting from read to read to find the best option downfield. Despite his small stature and the standard woes of short quarterbacks like Russell Wilson, Young excelled targeting the middle of the field, sporting an NFL passer rating of 140.2 on throws between the hashes 10-20 yards downfield per PFF. This intermediate-middle of the field is the most important area that modern offenses look to attack, and Young does a great job at looking off defenders to open up throwing lanes here before delivering accurate passes to give his receivers a chance to make a play after the catch.
Weaknesses:
Bryce Young is really small, and not just normal small, but historically small, with only two quarterbacks under 6’ tall and less than 200 lbs being drafted in the last 25 years, neither of which were in the top 100 picks. While he weighed in at 204 lbs at the NFL Combine, he conveniently didn’t do any drills, opting to wait until his pro day a couple of weeks later, where he conveniently skipped a weigh-in. The concerns surrounding Young’s size are not the same as those of other short QBs like Russell Wilson or Kyler Murray, as those guys have weighed comfortably over 200 lbs their whole careers. It is likely that Young simply put on weight for the combine, knowing teams would just be looking for the number on the scale to start with a two. He was listed at 194 lbs for his entire Alabama career, but it has been widely speculated that he was playing much closer to the 180-ish lb range. While he never had any injury concerns during his college days, there is really no precedent for a quarterback as small as Young going as high in the draft as he will likely go. As he plays against bigger and stronger players in the NFL, there are concerns about how he will hold up physically over time, especially considering his somewhat reckless playstyle, always wanting to make the big play while simultaneously putting his body at risk.
Summary:
Young will likely make the most immediate impact out of the QBs who will go in the first round, as he has the most well-rounded and easily translatable skill set. There are not very many holes you can poke in his overall game, as he pretty much does everything well. With the concerns about his size, some teams won’t even have him on their draft boards, and the question as to where he will be drafted will likely come down to which team is willing to take a step into the unknown, with an obviously talented player who is a complete outlier when it comes to his size.
5. Anthony Richardson - Quarterback, Florida
6’4” 244 lbs
2022 Stats - 12 G, 53.8%, 2549 Yds, 17 TD, 9 Int, 103 Car, 654 Yds, 9 TD
Player Comp - Justin Fields
Strengths:
Anthony Richardson just might be the greatest athlete to ever play the quarterback position, testing at the combine in the 100th percentile for QBs in the 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump, all while measuring in at 6’4” and 244 lbs. He has the tools and potential to be not only the best quarterback to come out of this class but possibly the best in the entire league. Richardson has a massive arm, with easy gunslinger-like mechanics that can send the ball sailing 70 yards downfield with the flick of a wrist. This ridiculous arm talent gives him the ability to make just about any throw imaginable.
During his time with Florida, Richardson was asked to read and progress through NFL-style route combinations much more than other “raw” prospects like Malik Willis and Trey Lance. He did a good job at reading the defense pre-snap and was able to make throws with anticipation when his pre and post-snap reads aligned. Richardson excelled out of play-action, with a 118.0 NFL passer rating on plays using play-action per PFF. This allowed him to use his athleticism on bootlegs before stopping to launch deep balls downfield to receivers. He also excelled in targeting the intermediate-middle of the field, with an 89.4 PFF grade on throws targeting this area.
Richardson’s insane combination of size and athleticism makes him pretty much the perfect threat in the quarterback run game, and I could easily see him rushing for over 1,000 yards in a season à la Justin Fields or Lamar Jackson. Whichever team drafts him should look to create a system that maximizes his status as a weapon in the run game, just like the Ravens, Bears, and Eagles have done with their young, athletic quarterbacks. Richardson’s speed makes him a threat for a house call anytime he decides to take off, be it on a designed run or just a scramble after the play breaks down. Once he gets into the open field, he’s incredibly hard to bring down, running straight through tackle attempts from poor defensive backs he has 40 lbs on, and often requiring two or three players to stop him. He’s a great playmaker out of structure once he gets pressured, only getting sacked on 9.2% of his pressured dropbacks, the lowest out of the projected first-round quarterbacks.
Weaknesses:
As high as Richardson’s ceiling is, his floor is just as low. If he doesn’t work to improve his accuracy and decision-making, he could be out of the league in a few short years. His accuracy is the biggest question mark in his game at the moment, as for every incredible moon ball to hit a receiver in stride for a 50-yard touchdown, there are two seemingly inexplicable misses on what should be easy passes. His accuracy fluctuations often come from trying to throw from an uneven base, which he throws from more than he should because of his poor pocket presence. While he’s great as a running threat once he starts scrambling, he is terrible at navigating within the pocket, often stepping up into the face of pressure for no reason, making throws much harder on himself. These accuracy problems lead to struggles executing in the quick passing game, where his 58% completion percentage on throws between 0-9 yards beyond the line of scrimmage led to just a 33.8 PFF grade on those attempts, 39.7 points behind the next lowest of the projected first-round QBs, Bryce Young.
Richardson will also need to improve on his post-snap decision-making and processing in order to effectively run an NFL offense. He would often get visibly confused by inverted and disguised coverages that didn’t align with what he saw before the snap, and there are plenty of times on his tape where he would completely miss wide-open receivers or lurking zone defenders, leading to missed opportunities and turnovers that leave you scratching your head wondering what he thought he saw.
Summary:
Before the breakout of other toolsy, developmental quarterbacks like Josh Allen, it’s unlikely Richardson would have even been considered a day-one pick. But with Allen going from a big athletic QB with a strong arm who was wildly inaccurate and inconsistent to an unquestioned top-five passer in the league, there is now hope for guys like Richardson. He showed improvement throughout his college career, playing much better once becoming the full-time starter last year, and cutting his turnover-worthy-play percentage in half over the second half of the season. Whichever team decides to take a chance on him on Thursday should look to build a west coast scheme, heavy on quarterback runs and play-action, that emphasizes his strengths while allowing him to develop and refine the more raw parts of his game.
6. Bijan Robinson - Running Back, Texas
5’11” 215 lbs
2022 Stats - 12 G, 258 Car, 1580 Yds, 18 TD, 19 Rec, 314 Yds, 2 TD
Player Comp - Saquan Barkley
Strengths:
Bijan Robinson does just about everything well a team could want out of a running back, and he is the best overall prospect the position has seen since Saquan Barkley was taken with the second overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft. The biggest strength that Robinson brings to the table is just how hard it is to tackle him. Last season, his 104 forced missed tackles were the most in the history of PFF’s player tracking database, breaking David Montgomery’s record of 99 in 2018. He is incredibly elusive as a runner, constantly making defenders miss with jukes, spins, and cuts that leave them grasping at air as Robinson leaves them in the dust, not losing any speed while changing directions. This is backed up by his 169.1 PFF elusiveness rating, the most of any Power Five running back with at least 177 carries.
He has great instincts and vision as a runner, always able to find lanes to cut through, working both inside and outside the tackles. When this is combined with his incredible power, it helps him to consistently turn plays that should be negative into 4-5 yard pickups. The strength he plays with gives him great contact balance, bouncing right off would-be tacklers who don’t try to wrap him up, which helped lead to his 4.17 yards after contact per carry, again the most among qualified Power Five running backs.
In addition to his obvious talent as a runner, Robinson is also a weapon that offenses can use in the passing game. He demonstrated impressive route running from the slot and showed body control and ball skills to make catches downfield that you wouldn’t expect to see from a running back, not having a single drop last season.
Weaknesses:
The biggest criticism you could draw, not that there really are any, is that he doesn’t have absolutely elite speed. There were a few times when he would break away on a run only to be caught from behind by someone with an angle, where if he had high-4.3 speed rather than the 4.46-second 40-yard dash he ran at the NFL Combine, he likely would have scored. Additionally, there’s a chance that his play style, where he is constantly trying to find the best hole to hit, could lead to him bouncing around in the backfield but not really going anywhere, a problem Barkley has encountered throughout his career. He could also stand to improve as a pass-protector to become a truly dominant three-down-back, as he often just throws his shoulder at incoming blitzers rather than using actual pass-blocking technique.
Summary:
Overall, I think Robinson will be a slam-dunk pick for whichever team decides to take him, the question just comes down to how much teams will value a running back, even one as talented as Robinson, in the first round. As the likely favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year next season, whoever ends up taking him will be getting a bell-cow back and shouldn’t have to worry about the running back position for the next five years.
7. Peter Skoronski - Tackle, Northwestern
6’4” 313 lbs
2022 Stats - 12 G
Player Comp - Rashawn Slater
Strengths:
Peter Skoronski is easily the best overall offensive lineman in this class. He is an explosively strong athlete for the line, testing above the 90th percentile in the vertical jump, broad jump, and bench press. He uses that strength to his advantage as both a pass and run blocker, dropping an anchor after his kick step that helps him fend off bull rushers, and plowing defenders to clear open lanes for his running backs. Skoronski has great technique as a pass blocker, with a quick kickstep to cut off pass rushers trying to get to the edge, and strong hands that he uses to negate attempted pass rush moves, helping him lead all tackles in PFF pass blocking grade last season. He’s a very cerebral player in pass protection, identifying, reading, and then passing off stunts and twists from the defensive line.
Skoronski’s best strength as a blocker is his use of leverage and angles. He plays with great pad level against the run and has a strong sense of what angle will be the most effective while blocking. He’s quick laterally, which allows him to reach the far shoulder of defenders before he flips his hips to seal them off on the backside of run plays.
Weaknesses:
Skoronksi has extremely short arms for the tackle position, coming in at only 32¼ inches. For context, no tackle with arms under 33 inches has been drafted in the first round since 2005, so there’s a chance that teams won’t view him as a tackle prospect at all, only wanting him if they can move him to guard. His short arms leave him more vulnerable to long arm and bull rush moves from pass rushers, as he is not the one initiating contact on the rep and can’t maintain control as well. While he is a strong run blocker, he doesn’t do well blocking in space, not having the necessary agility to be a real threat blocking on screen passes.
Summary:
Ultimately, I think Skoronksi will be able to remain at tackle, using his strength and technique to be able to make up for his short arms, and even if he doesn’t, whichever team drafts him will be getting an elite guard prospect. While his physical tools might not be everything a team desires, he is an incredibly smart player and uses angles and hand technique to consistently win reps against players who physically outmatch him.
8. Christian Gonzalez - Cornerback, Oregon
6’1” 197 lbs
2022 Stats - 12 G, 35 Tk, 1 TFL, 4 Int, 7 PD
Player Comp - Patrick Surtain II
Strengths:
Christian Gonzalez has the ideal combination of size and athleticism to be a lockdown man-to-man corner in the modern NFL. He absolutely lit up the NFL Combine in March, with his 4.38-second 40-yard dash ranking in the 89th percentile for defensive backs, and his 41.5” vertical jump and 11’1” broad jump ranking in the 98th and 95th percentiles respectively. This athleticism was on full display all over his tape, using his speed to instantly close gaps with receivers and then out-leaping them to win at the catch-point.
After two relatively quiet years in Boulder, he was able to break out as one of the best defensive backs in the nation during his lone season with the Ducks. Gonzalez is extremely versatile for the corner position and should be able to play in just about any type of scheme at the NFL level. He uses his long arms to jam receivers at the line and shows great fluidity flipping his hips to match them step for step as they make their break. Even when he gets beat off the line of scrimmage, he has elite closing speed that allows him to instantly recover right into the receiver’s hip pocket. Gonzalez’s speed and athleticism also play well in off and zone coverage, as he can float between zones while reading the quarterback before using his speed and fluidity to instantly change directions, closing to receivers to break up passes. While he had no interceptions during his two years at Colorado, Gonzalez showed promising improvement with his ball skills at Oregon, picking off four passes and setting a career-high with seven passes defended. Additionally, Gonzalez is not afraid to use his physicality as a run defender, regularly stepping up to make big tackles.
Weaknesses:
While Gonzalez has great length to play the cornerback position, he is still relatively skinny, and could potentially see trouble when he matches up against the more physical receivers the league has to offer like A.J. Brown or D.K. Metcalf. Although he isn’t afraid to step up to make tackles, he mostly just tries to throw himself into the legs of the runner, a strategy that won’t be as effective against the more physically talented ball carriers he will encounter in the NFL. He also could stand to improve his physicality while jamming receivers at the line of scrimmage. Because he had such an athletic advantage over his opponents in college, he would simply rely on that in press coverage rather than using his hands to get into the receiver’s chest and alter their release. Like most young corners, Gonzalez will start to grab onto receivers when he feels like he is getting beat, and he will need to learn to trust in his athleticism and fluidity to match receivers to negate penalty risks.
Summary:
Gonzalez has all the physical tools to be an absolute lockdown press corner in the NFL, and if he can make the necessary adjustments to his game, will be able to completely take the league’s best receivers out of games. His athleticism and length should easily translate to the NFL level, and with development to his technique in coverage, I can comfortably see him becoming the best cornerback prospect to come out of this year’s draft.
9. Tyree Wilson - Edge, Texas Tech
6’6” 271 lbs
2022 Stats - 10 G, 61 Tk, 14 TFL, 7 Sk, 1 FF
Player Comp - Ezekiel Ansah
Strengths:
A player with Tyree Wilson’s size shouldn’t be allowed to come off the edge. He stands at 6’6” but has a 7’2” wingspan and 35⅝” arms, length that is completely unfair to most linemen he matches up against. Wilson has a quick first step off the line and uses his ridiculous combination of size and strength to drive straight through the chest of poor tackles. He utilizes his incredibly strong bull rush and long arm moves as his primary attack to get to the passer, but he likes to counter them with an inside move when tackles overset too far in their kick step in an attempt to be ready for his strength and speed combination. He posted good numbers in both his standard and advanced metrics, notching seven sacks each of the last two seasons, and his 12% pressure rate ranked fourth among qualified Power Five edge rushers per PFF, just ahead of Will Anderson. Like Anderson, Wilson showed unique positional versatility, playing out of both a two and three-point stance and lining up inside or outside of the tackle while at Texas Tech.
Wilson’s blend of size and strength makes him a force to be reckoned with in the run game as well. He uses his absurd strength to drive offensive linemen straight into the backfield to completely blow up run plays. His ridiculously long arms give him a massive reach when trying to bring down ball carriers, which combined with his speed allows him to make tackles that don’t look like they should be possible. This was reflected in his 10% stop rate last season, second best among qualified Power Five edge rushers according to PFF. Additionally, Wilson has a high motor when chasing after the quarterback or tracking down ball carriers from the back side of run plays.
Weaknesses:
Despite all of the tools that Wilson brings to the table, he is still pretty developmental as a pass-rushing prospect, which is concerning considering he didn’t break out until his redshirt-junior season in 2021, and he will already be 23 years old by the time he makes his NFL debut in the fall. He hasn’t really developed any pass rush moves at all, as he was so much stronger than his opponents in college that he could usually beat them with a simple bull rush. Because of his natural strength advantage, he tends to play too tall, not using the correct pad level or leverage to win reps, which won’t work against the bigger and stronger players he will face in the NFL. While he is a good athlete overall, Wilson doesn’t have the elite bend or explosiveness that you would expect to see from a high-level edge prospect. This will likely hold him back as an overall pass rusher in the NFL, and I don’t see him being the type of player you can line up in a wide-nine and expect to get after the quarterback for double-digit sacks.
Summary:
Wilson will instantly make an impact against the run for whichever team decides to draft him, but his ceiling as a pass rusher will depend heavily on the development of his hand-fighting and technique coming off the edge. In addition to his presence as a run defender, his size and athleticism will likely be enough for him to be disruptive and create pressure as a pass rusher, but ultimately I don’t feel he will ever develop into the type of double-digit sack machine that teams are looking for when they target edge defenders in the top five picks of the draft, somewhere I have often seen Wilson being mocked.
10. Will Levis - Quarterback, Kentucky
6’4” 229 lbs
2022 Stats - 11 G, 65.4%, 2406 Yds, 19 TD, 10 Int, 72 Car, -107 Yds, 2 TD
Player Comp - Carson Wentz
Strengths:
Heading into the 2022 college football season, it looked like Will Levis would be a lock to be a top-five selection by the time this year’s draft rolled around. After transferring from Penn State to Kentucky ahead of his redshirt-junior season, Levis would break out with the Wildcats in 2021. He posted a 90.6 PFF grade that was tied for 10th best among Power Five QBs, throwing for over 2,800 yards, and totaling 33 touchdowns through the air and on the ground with only 11 turnover-worthy plays on the season, per PFF.
The trait that intrigues teams the most about Levis is his monster arm, as he can easily send the ball well over 50 yards downfield off an uneven platform, hitting receivers in stride with a gorgeous moon ball. He can zip passes to fit them into tight windows or loft them over defenders' heads with impeccable touch. Levis showed the ability to run an NFL offense playing for now-Rams offensive coordinator Liam Coen in 2021, playing well when he was given the easy reads that the McVay offense generates for quarterbacks off of play-action.
He is a good athlete and extremely tough, both as a runner and in the pocket. He’s always willing to put his shoulder down to pick up extra yards on a scramble and will stand in the pocket to deliver a pass, knowing he is going to be hit. While he regressed in 2022 compared to his incredible 2021 season, he lost his top two receivers and offensive linemen, as well as his offensive coordinator to the NFL, with Coen’s replacement Rich Scangarello being fired before the season was over.
Weaknesses:
Levis is still largely considered to be a developmental project at quarterback, which is worrisome considering he will be 24 by the time the season starts, more than two years older than Stroud, Young, and Richardson, who are likely more NFL-ready than Levis. As previously mentioned, he transferred to Kentucky from Penn State, which happened because he wasn’t able to beat out Sean Clifford for the starting job, a player who is currently projected to go undrafted and doesn’t show up on many pre-draft quarterback rankings. While he was dealing with a system change and losing most of the high-level talent around him, Willis regressed to a concerning level in 2022. While the consistent pressure he faced was not always his fault, he was sacked on 26.8 percent of his pressured dropbacks per PFF, by far the highest rate of this year’s top quarterbacks.
Overall, Levis was just wildly inconsistent last season, scrambling out of the pocket to find an open receiver 40 yards down the field on one play, and stepping up directly into pressure to completely airmail an open receiver on the next. He often struggled to read the field and seemed completely unaware of his surroundings at times, becoming fixated on his first option, and missing other open receivers and defenders lurking in zone coverage. It was rare to see him make throws with anticipation of what he was seeing in coverage, never throwing receivers open. Despite his big arm, it wasn’t put to much use in 2022, with 61.6% of his passing yards coming after the catch according to The Ringer’s Ben Solak, the highest of the top QBs, and his 7 big-time throws being by far the lowest, per PFF.
Turnovers and decision-making are major concerns for Levis overall. He plays with a Carson Wentz-like disregard for the value of possession, trying to play way too much hero ball, leading to interceptions that leave you wondering if he was thinking at all. Once he wasn’t playing in the system that helped Jared Goff to a Super Bowl appearance, his decision-making on the field fell off a cliff when he was forced to think and improvise on the fly. Although not an on-field decision, the fact that he puts mayonnaise in his coffee and eats bananas with the peel should raise at least some concerns for NFL teams looking to find the face of their franchise at the quarterback position during the draft.
Summary:
Levis has every physical trait that NFL teams desire for the quarterback position, as a big athlete with a massive arm. At the top end of his pro comparisons, you will see Josh Allen, but I think the concerns surrounding his inconsistency and decision-making are much more likely to lead to a Carson Wentz outcome rather than a consensus top-five quarterback in the league, as a player who shows flashes, but whose negatives ultimately outweigh his positives. If teams think they can develop and fine-tune the mental aspects necessary to be an NFL quarterback, he is absolutely worth a top-10 pick considering the tools he has, but as a 24-year-old rookie who had a late college breakout, it looks like it will likely be an uphill battle for Levis to get there.
Komentarze