When the Seattle Mariners traded Robinson Canó and Edwin Díaz in December 2018, two players who had combined to make four All-Star Games and receive MVP votes in three different seasons with the team, it’s safe to say most fans were a little disappointed. After finishing the 2018 season with an 89-73 record, the team’s best since 2003, it looked like Seattle was headed towards another rebuild, trading away their third and fourth-best players by bWAR. In return, the Mariners would receive two less-than-stellar relievers, Gerson Bautista and Anthony Swarzak; washed-up former All-Star, Jay Bruce; and the Mets’ 2016 and 2018 first-round picks, Justin Dunn and Jarred Kelenic.
Kelenic was the trade piece giving Mariners fans the most hope for the future. The young outfielder had recently been the sixth overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft out of Wisconsin’s Waukesha West High School. Kelenic had a promising start to rookie ball in the Mets’ system, posting an .839 OPS across his first 56 games of professional baseball. He debuted at #56 on MLB Pipeline’s top 100 prospect rankings ahead of the 2019 season, coming in as the #2 prospect in the Mariners’ system. Kelenic went on to crush the 2019 minor league season as he climbed from A to AA, posting a .291/.364/.540 with 23 home runs and 20 stolen bases across 117 games. Despite the 2020 minor league season being canceled due to the COVID-19 pandemic, he still managed to climb to the #4 overall spot on MLB Pipeline’s rankings ahead of the 2021 season, being joined by fellow Mariners’ outfield prospect, Julio Rodríguez.
Kelenic started the 2021 season in AAA Tacoma, but would quickly prove he deserved a spot on the major league roster, with a 1.016 OPS through 30 games. He was called up to make his big league debut on May 13 against Cleveland and recorded his first major league hit the next day, going 3/4 with a home run and two doubles. Unfortunately, that would be the highlight of his season, as over his next 21 games he slashed .067/.167/.107 and was sent back to AAA in early June. Kelenic proceeded to once again dominate AAA pitching to the tune of a 1.008 over 24 games before being recalled to the majors in mid-July. It was still rough for Kelenic from there, finishing with a 72 OPS+, but he ended the season on a hot streak that gave Mariners fans hope for the future, with an .854 OPS over his last 29 games.
Unfortunately, 2022 would be another disappointment for Kelenic, bouncing between AAA and the majors. Once again, he proved far too talented for AAA with a .922 OPS in 86 games, but still struggled mightily in the big leagues. His OPS+ sat all the way down at 52 and he was striking out in over a third of his plate appearances. He looked simply outmatched by major league pitching, struggling especially against breaking pitches, with just a .057 batting average on those pitch types. The talent was obviously there for Kelenic, but there was just some sort of mental block keeping him from being able to hit consistently at the major league level.
In the offseason Kelenic retreated to Pasadena to work with private hitting coaches, trying to train his swing for the major leagues. He worked for days not even taking live batting practice, solely focusing on drills off of the tee and soft toss to work on the most technical aspects of his swing. By the time Kelenic took his first swing against live pitching he knew his swing felt different, cranking balls to places he never could have accessed before. This new, reworked swing, paired with a new “hockey puck”-style bat knob, used by players like Paul Goldschmidt to generate more bat speed, has Kelenic hitting the ball harder than ever.
Mariners fans could tell it was a new Kelenic swinging the bat in spring training, as he clubbed eight extra-base hits and had an OPS of 1.095, but they couldn’t be certain until they saw it in the regular season. He started the season off a bit slow, with a .286 batting average, but no home runs across the Mariners’ first three series. That would all change when the Mariners would take a trip to the northside of Chicago for a three-game set against the Cubs. While the team would drop two of the three games, Kelenic absolutely went off, going five for nine in the series while homering in every game, including a 482-foot moonshot off Julian Merryweather that was the longest home run Wrigley has seen since the start of Statcast tracking in 2015. Since that first game in Chicago on April 10, Kelenic has emerged as one of the best hitters in the entire league, with a .308/.368/.654 slash line and a 181 wRC+ that ranks eighth-best in the league over that time.
Kelenic has continuously shown the ability to consistently make hard contact this season. He has hit 54.1% of his batted balls over 95 mph this season, placing him in the top 6% of major league hitters. This 54.1% hard-hit rate has been a significant improvement over the 38% rate he posted over his first two seasons. Overall, his average exit velocity has increased from 86.9 mph up to 92 mph, which ranks in the top 13% of the league. He has done this while dropping his average launch angle from 18 degrees in 2022 down to 9.9 degrees in 2023. From last year to this year, Kelenic has decreased his popup rate from 15.5% all the way down to 1.4%, and increased his line drive rate from 16.5% up to 28.4%, doing more damage when he makes contact. No matter what numbers you look at, they all tell you that Kelenic has been one of the best hitters in the league this season, with his expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and xwOBA all ranking in the top 12% of the league.
In addition to the obvious value Kelenic has provided the Mariners with his bat, Kelenic has also made improvements to his outfield defense and baserunning. After not qualifying last season due to his limited number of games played at the major league level, Kelenic has improved his outs above average from the 23rd percentile as a rookie, all the way up to the 64th percentile this year. He has been a consistent presence for the Mariners in the outfield and has come up clutch multiple times on defense. Additionally, Kelenic has gone five for six on stolen base attempts this season, 23rd best in the league and only trailing Julio Rodriguez’s six steals for the team lead. He has run faster overall this season, with his average sprint speed increasing from 27.1 and 27.2 feet per second during his first two seasons up to 27.5 feet per second in 2023.
Kelenic slowed down on the Mariners' most recent road trip, with an OPS at .788 while striking out over a third of the time during the 9-game span. While his strikeout rate increased over this time, he maintained a walk rate and hard-hit rate that has been in line with his season averages. Moving forward, the key for Kelenic will be to work on decreasing his strikeout rate while increasing his walk rate. This season he is still striking out in 28.2% of his plate appearances, which ranks way down in the 20th percentile of hitters. While he has lowered his chase rate down to 24.3%, in the 68th percentile of the league, there is still a lot of swing and miss in his game, whiffing on 27.3% of pitches he sees, which is right in line with his previous seasons and ranks down in the 38th percentile. Additionally, although he walks at a decent clip, with his 8.5% walk rate sitting in the 47th percentile and just above the league average of 8.4%, he could still stand to be more disciplined when pitchers try to tempt him out of the zone.
It is unlikely that Kelenic will keep this incredible pace up, but I don’t think he will fall too far from it. He is making by far the best contact of his career, and if he continues to work on his strikeout and walk rates, he could be someone who ends this season receiving MVP votes. At this point, I think it’s hard to describe this breakout as a fluke and think that by the time the All-Star Game returns to Seattle in July, Kelenic will be standing in that outfield representing the navy blue and northwest green.
All stats are accurate as of 5/6/23
Comments