Most Valuable Player: Patrick Mahomes - QB, Chiefs
I know this may seem like an easy or obvious pick, but what can I say? It’s Patrick Mahomes, he’s the best player in football (despite what the NFL’s Top 100 may say) and the best quarterback I’ve ever seen (yes, including Tom Brady). Mahomes is simply inevitable, currently coming off back-to-back Super Bowl victories despite the worst statistical season of his career.
2024 saw him post career lows in yards and touchdowns per game (excluding his rookie season) and a career-high 14 interceptions. The Chiefs finished just ninth in total yards and 15th in scoring, the first time Kansas City has finished outside the top six in either category since Mahomes became a starter in 2018. It may seem like a bad omen but come on people… this is still the Chiefs. They still have football’s best player and arguably its best offensive mind in Andy Reid (acknowledgments to Sean McVay, Kyle Shanahan, and Mike McDaniel).
2024 saw Mahomes play with, by far, the least amount of talent around him in his career as All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards for the first time since 2015 and his best receiver was a second-round rookie in Rashee Rice who didn’t start his first game until week seven and didn’t record double-digit targets until week 12. Despite the fact that Kelce will turn 35 before week five, he is still the most important non-Mahomes Chief on offense and enters the season fully healthy. Rice on the other hand had an eventful offseason after being charged with eight felonies stemming from a March hit-and-run but likely won’t face a suspension this season as his trial is set for next June and the NFL will wait for legal proceedings to play out before dishing out any punishment of their own. Additionally, Kansas City addressed their need at receiver in the offseason, signing Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (who did get hurt on literally the first play of the preseason) to a one-year deal and drafting the new 40-yard dash record holder Xavier Worthy with 28th overall pick this past spring. While both are undersized, their blazing speed should help open up defenses over the top which is something this offense severely lacked last year as Mahomes posted the lowest average depth of target of his career at just 6.8 yards. Worthy’s elite speed will also provide value in Andy Reid’s creative screen game as last year his 185 yards on catches behind the line of scrimmage ranked seventh among Power Five receivers.
Realistically, you can’t hold this offense down for long, and I expect a big bounce-back year for Mahomes and the Chiefs as they seek to become the first team in NFL history to threepeat as Super Bowl champions.
Runner Up: Jordan Love - QB, Packers
Offensive Player of the Year: Garrett Wilson - WR, Jets
Garrett Wilson ranking 19th in receiving yards across his first two seasons despite catching passes from Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Mike White, Chris Streveler, Trevor Siemian, and Tim Boyle might honestly be the most impressive stat in football over the last two years. Coming off his 2022 Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign, Wilson was one of the most hyped receivers entering last year before Aaron Rodgers’ 2023 season ended just four plays into week one thanks to MetLife field’s infamous turf. Wilson finished fourth in the NFL with 168 targets last season thanks to a dominant 29.8 percent target share but finished just 13th in receptions and 22nd in yards with only three touchdowns despite ranking 12th among receivers with 21 red zone targets. Needless to say, his situation was pretty bad.
Wilson is an immensely talented player who excels in every part of the receiving game but it all starts with his route running. He is a fluid mover who cuts in and out of breaks with extreme efficiency to separate from defensive backs. Last season he tied for fifth among all receivers in ESPN’s open score. Additionally, he can contort his body to make incredible contested catches (just as he did on arguably the catch of the year) and is a threat after the catch, tying for sixth among receivers with 19 missed tackles forced per PFF.
With Rodgers set to return, Wilson is again expected to take the leap people foresaw last year into the elite group of NFL receivers. Rodgers will turn 41 in December and is coming off what was once thought to be a career-threatening Achilles tear but is still only three years removed from his fourth MVP award, the last time he played with a true number-one receiver in Davante Adams. Adams made his third consecutive All-Pro First Team that year while finishing second in the NFL with 169 targets, a 29.6 percent target share, 127 catchable targets, and 123 receptions (only trailing Cooper Kupp’s triple crown campaign) while finishing third in yards, fifth in touchdowns, and third in yards per route run.
If Wilson really is as talented as the consensus believes he is and Rodgers can return to his expected level of play, he should be able to put up numbers similar to Adams’ peak in a true breakout third season.
Runner Up: Bijan Robinson - RB, Falcons
Defensive Player of the Year: T.J. Watt - Edge, Steelers
This case is pretty similar to the one I made with Mahomes. Watt is simply one of if not the best player at his position, somehow only has one DPOY award to his name, and it seems like he should be due to add his second, joining his brother to become just the ninth multi-time recipient in NFL history. Watt has led the league in sacks in his last three healthy seasons (not counting 2022 when he only played 10 games), including a 22.5 sack 2021 campaign that tied Michael Strahan’s single-season record. He’s made four All-Pro First Teams in his last four healthy seasons, finishing third, second, first, and second in DPOY voting. Since his 2017 rookie season, Watt leads all players with 96.5 sacks and 27 forced fumbles.
It’s not just his gaudy sack totals that prove his dominance as a pass rusher, the advanced metrics back it up too. In the last four seasons that Watt has reached my qualifying 300 pass-rush snap threshold, he has finished inside the top 15 in PFF’s pass-rushing grade, total pressures, and pressure percentage while only missing the top 15 once in pass-rush win rate, finishing 20th last year and missing out on the top 15 by just a 1.3 percent mark.
Now heading into his age 30 season, Watt has been the NFL’s best edge rusher over the last half-decade, taking over a position that was at one point held by his brother. If there’s one thing the Watt family knows how to do, it’s get after the quarterback, which is something T.J. will certainly be doing this season en route to his second DPOY.
Runner Up: Will Anderson - Edge, Texans
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Caleb Williams - QB, Bears
Williams is an easy choice here as one of the most hyped quarterback prospects in recent memory playing in one of the best situations that any first-overall pick has ever walked into. Thanks to the Panthers jumping up to take Bryce Young first overall in 2023, Chicago got to reap the benefits of Carolina’s 2-15 record while actually finishing an improved 7-10 themselves. Along with the pick that netted them Williams, the Bears also acquired receiver D.J. Moore who proceeded to set career highs with 96 receptions, 1,364 yards, and 8 touchdowns last season. In the offseason, Chicago went out and acquired six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen for a fourth-round pick. Despite turning 32 in the offseason, Allen is still one of the top receivers in the game, especially in the slot where ranked top 10 in both receptions and yards. Opposite Moore as the other outside receiver will be rookie Rome Odunze who the Bears selected with their own first round pick ninth overall. Odunze is coming off a monster redshirt junior season at Washington that saw him lead the nation with 1,640 yards while ranking sixth with 92 receptions and 13 touchdowns, helping lead the Huskies to a College Football Playoff runner-up finish.
The Bears also feature a young, improving offensive line with an average age of just 26.4 years old. Led by strong seasons last year from guard Teven Jenkins and tackle Braxton Jones, entering their fourth and third seasons, respectively, Chicago is hoping to see improvement from second-year tackle Darnell Wright — the 10th overall pick in the 2023 draft that they acquired from Carolina — as well as veterans Nate Davis and Coleman Shelton. The Bears ranked 23rd last season in PFF’s pass-blocking grade, but if they can get that up toward league average, combined with Williams’ knack for making some unreal plays, it should give him enough time to be able to find his talented receivers downfield.
The highlights that drew Mahomes comparisons will certainly be there for Williams — just as we have already seen in the preseason — and if he can play consistently from the pocket he will certainly have a chance to become the sixth rookie in NFL history to pass for 4,000 yards. Additionally, while he isn’t necessarily known as a dual threat to the likes of fellow rookie Jayden Daniels, Williams’ legs shouldn’t be overlooked as he ran for 21 touchdowns over the past two seasons at USC.
Runner Up: Marvin Harrison Jr. - WR, Cardinals
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Laiatu Latu - Edge, Colts
In terms of on-field talent and production, Latu was easily the best defensive player in this year’s draft but health questions that forced him to medically retire for two years at Washington before transferring to UCLA where he was cleared to play caused people to doubt his status as a draft prospect. The Colts clearly did not hold these same doubts in his medical history, making him the first defensive player to go off the board with the 15th overall pick in this year’s offense-heavy draft. Indianapolis’ belief in Latu’s health has me all in on his rookie year, as since coming back in 2022 he was without a doubt the best edge rusher in college football. In each of the last two years, Latu ranked in the top 10 in PFF grade, pressures, sacks, pressure rate, and pass-rush win rate, dominating college tackles with a refined set of pass-rushing moves. If Latu can post a strong rookie season to go with a second-year breakout from quarterback Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis will be competing for a playoff spot, helping add to Latu’s DROY resume.
Runner Up: Byron Murphy II - DL, Seahawks
Coach of the Year: Mike Macdonald - Seahawks
The new youngest head coach in the NFL will take over from Pete Carroll — formerly the league’s oldest — hoping to bring defense back to a Seahawks team that has severely lacked it in recent years. Seattle has finished in the bottom half of the league in points allowed in each of the past two years and in yards allowed in each of the last five. When the Seahawks were at the peak of their contention (somehow a decade ago now) it was led by their defense, the Legion of Boom. Luckily for Seattle, defense is Macdonald’s specialty, which is exactly why he was brought in. After leading Michigan to a top-10 defense in his lone year as defensive coordinator in 2021, Macdonald took over the Ravens’ DC job in 2022, leading them to the third and first-best scoring defenses over the last two years. Seattle has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, with hopes that former Washington offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb can help take their offense to new heights. If Macdonald can turn around the defense, the Seahawks will be a strong playoff contender that should place him right in the middle of this award’s race.
Runner Up: Shane Steichen - Colts
Comeback Player of the Year: Aaron Rodgers - QB, Jets
After a long, drawn-out departure from Green Bay, Rodgers played just four snaps before a torn Achilles ended his season before it could ever really start. Rodgers then proceeded to hint at a magical late-season return that never came to fruition but is set to start this season fully healthy, hoping to lead a talented Jets team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2010, the longest active playoff drought in the league. Like I said in my section about Wilson, even at 40 years old Rodgers is still only three years removed from his fourth career MVP award, and if he can make it through all of this season — MetLife turf be damned — while playing at a near Pro Bowl level and leading New York to the playoffs, he should easily be a contender for this award.
Runner Up: J.K. Dobbins - RB, Chargers
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