Most Valuable Player: Trevor Lawrence - QB - Jaguars
One of the most hyped-up quarterback prospects in NFL history, Lawrence showed great improvement last year after a disappointing rookie season. He improved on nearly every stat from his first to second year while becoming a better all-around quarterback. After a tumultuous season in 2021 that landed Jacksonville their second straight number-one pick, Lawrence was able to lead the Jags to a 9-8 record and their first AFC South title and playoff appearance since 2017. The most noticeable difference in his game was the improvement to Lawrence’s overall efficiency, with his completion percentage jumping from 59.6% as a rookie up to 66.3% last season, going from the 29th to the 13th best mark. His touchdown-to-interception ratio was the stat that saw the biggest leap overall, with his 25 touchdown passes more than doubling the 12 he threw as a rookie, and after leading the league with 17 picks, he nearly cut that number in half, throwing only eight on the season.
While his overall stats were impressive last season, it was the numbers he put up over the second half that showed how special of a talent Lawrence is. Through weeks 1-8, Lawrence completed 62.5% of his passes for 230 yards per game while tossing 10 touchdowns to six interceptions. But from week nine on, he was able to take his game to another level, completing 69.7% of his passes for 252.6 yards per game with an outstanding 15-2 touchdown to interception ratio. His ability to protect the football while still threatening downfield turned him into one of the NFL’s best passers over the second half. Lawrence’s 2.4% turnover-worthy play rate after week nine would’ve been the sixth-best mark in the league, trailing only Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, and Andy Dalton; four of the NFL’s best quarterbacks, plus Andy Dalton. Even while protecting the ball at an impressive rate, he was still aggressive as a passer, with his 6.2% big-time throw rate after week nine being good enough to trail only Josh Allen over the whole season, per PFF.
Now heading into his third year in the league, and his second under Head Coach, Doug Pederson, Lawrence has the Jags looking more dangerous than they’ve been since “Sacksonville” was terrifying AFC quarterbacks. The offseason addition of Calvin Ridley, who had over 1,300 receiving yards during his last full season, only adds to a strong skill group consisting of Travis Etienne, Cristian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram, all of whom are coming off of career years. I expect Jacksonville’s offense to be explosive this year, and Lawrence to be the centerpiece driving it all.
Runner Up: Jalen Hurts - QB, Eagles
Offensive Player of the Year: Nick Chubb - RB, Browns
Nick Chubb might be the least talked about player in the NFL who is pretty unanimously considered to be the best at their position. Since entering the league in 2018, Chubb’s 6,341 rushing yards trail only Derrick Henry and his career average of 5.2 yards per carry is the second-best mark of any running back since the start of the Super Bowl era in 1966. His career has been defined by absurd efficiency running the football, and now with the departure of Kareem Hunt, who vultured over 400 carries away from Chubb over the past four years, he’s set to see the biggest workload of his career.
Due to the presence of other backs on the roster, Chubb has only been on the field for just over half of the snaps for the Browns’ offense over the last couple of years, far below the marks of other top running backs like Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley. The sheer amount of extra volume in the running game should be enough to make Chubb a strong candidate to win this award, but he will also have more opportunities than he’s ever had to establish himself as a pass catcher out of the backfield.
He’s often been talked about throughout his career as a running back who can’t catch the ball, but he really just hasn’t been given the chance to showcase that aspect of his game. Since 2019, he was out-targeted 3.4 to 2.2 by Kareem Hunt on a per-game basis. While he won’t be the type of dynamic receiving threat that you see from the likes of McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, or Austin Ekeler, the uptick in volume from the screen game and leaking out of the backfield into open space should be enough for Chubb to set career-highs in targets, catches, and receiving yards.
Runner Up: Ja’Marr Chase - WR, Bengals
Defensive Player of the Year: Micah Parsons - Edge, Cowboys
Micah Parsons has had one of the most dominant starts to a career of any defender in NFL history, making the All-Pro First team in each of his first two years. His 26.5 sacks are the sixth-most of any player over the first two years of their career, a ridiculous stat considering he spent most of his rookie season playing as an off-the-ball linebacker. Parsons has established himself as one of the league’s most dominant pass rushers, leading all players in pressure rate as a rookie and only trailing Nick Bosa last year, per PFF. Additionally, he finished first and fourth in PFF’s pass rush grade in his first two years, trailing only Myles Garrett, Dexter Lawrence, and Chris Jones in 2022. After finishing as the runner-up for this award in both of his first two seasons in the league, losing to T.J. Watt and Bosa respectively, it’s finally Micah’s turn to take home the hardware as he heads into his third season.
Runner Up: Maxx Crosby - Edge, Raiders
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Bijan Robinson - RB, Falcons
All the talk about Bijan Robinson leading up to the draft surrounded the fact that he was the best running back prospect the NFL has seen since Saquon Barkley in 2018, who just so happens to be the last running back to win this award. Robinson is ridiculously talented as a runner, with incredible instincts and vision while also being nearly impossible to bring down. Last season at Texas, he broke the record for the most missed tackles forced in the history of PFF’s player tracking database with 104, breaking David Montgomery’s previous record of 99. Robinson does absolutely everything that is asked of a back as a runner, with the explosiveness necessary for big gains, but also the consistency to regularly turn plays that should be negative into 4-5 yard gains. In addition to his talents as a runner, Robinson is also a dynamic threat as a receiver both coming out of the backfield and even from the slot, making him a threat no matter where he’s lined up.
Along with the sheer amount of talent that Bijan brings to the table, it’s the fact that he landed in a nearly perfect situation that should make him a runaway favorite for this award. Falcons’ Head Coach, Arthur Smith, is the mastermind who orchestrated the run game that helped Derrick Henry take home Offensive Player of the Year honors in 2020 while running for over 2,000 yards. Last season, Atlanta ran the ball with both outstanding volume and efficiency, leading the league in overall run rate while their offensive line led all units in PFF’s run-blocking grade. It was that combination that helped fifth-round rookie Tyler Algier rush for over 1,000 yards last season while playing a role that should be marginal compared to how Robinson will be used this year. Additionally, with second-year QB, Desmond Ridder set to take snaps for the Falcons, Robinson should expect to feature heavily in the passing game as both a threat in the screen game and a check-down option for Ridder as he gets adjusted to the NFL.
Runner Up: Bryce Young - QB, Panthers
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jalen Carter - DL, Eagles
The fact that Carter, the top overall player on my draft board this year, fell all the way to the defending NFC champion Eagles at the 9th pick in this year's draft is simply unfair. He is an absolute monster in the trenches, with a combination of strength and speed that is rarely seen on the defensive line. His physical tools make him a constant mismatch for anyone trying to block him, too strong for quick linemen and too fast for strong ones. His explosive first step makes him dangerous against both the run and the pass, as he can attack linemen or knife into the backfield to get to the QB or ball carrier before the offense even knows what hit them.
In addition to the talent that Carter brings to the table, it’s the situation he landed in with the Eagles that makes him one of the favorites to take home this award. Last season, the Eagles’ 70 sacks as a team were the third most of all time, only trailing the 1985 Bears and 1989 Vikings. Joining him on the inside are six-time Pro Bowler, Fletcher Cox, and Carter’s former Georgia teammate and 2022 first-round pick, Jordan Davis, a freakish combination of strength and speed in his own right. Coming off the edge will be the rotation of Brandon Graham, Josh Sweat, Haason Reddick, and Nolan Smith. Graham is a former Pro Bowler who set a career-high with 11 sacks last year; Sweat made his first Pro Bowl in 2021 and posted a career-high 11 sacks last season; Reddick made his first Pro Bowl and All-Pro team while finishing tied for second in the league with 16 sacks and finishing fourth in DPOY voting; and Smith is another Bulldog teammate who was the 30th overall pick in this year's draft. All this talent on the defensive line will make Carter’s life so much easier. In college, he was always the one to draw double teams, but you can’t do that with elite pass rushers coming from all over the line. Additionally, the depth that the Eagles have means that Carter will get more rest as they rotate through defenders, meaning that he can be at his very best when on the field
Character concerns surrounding a March car crash that resulted in the deaths of a Georgia teammate and staff member are the reason that Carter fell in the draft, but I think that landing in a winning situation in Philly, with veteran teammates like Cox and cornerback, Darius Slay, who recently compared Carter to a baby rhino, will help to keep him focused on being the best football player he can be.
Runner Up: Devon Witherspoon - CB, Seahawks
Coach of the Year: Doug Pederson - Jaguars
Along with my choice of Lawrence for MVP, this is more just a vote of confidence in the Jaguars, and specifically their offense, having arrived as a dominant force in the league. Pederson has a track record of success in the NFL, winning Super Bowl LII with the Eagles in 2018 and posting winning records in four of his six seasons as a head coach. The Jaguars roster has seen improvements to both sides of the ball going into this season, and an MVP-level breakout from Lawrence should make them one of the most formidable teams in the AFC.
Runner Up: Pete Carroll - Seahawks
Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin - S, Bills
I mean what more is there to say, Hamlin nearly died on the field after going into cardiac arrest during Monday Night Football last season and will play professional football less than a year later. The fact that he’s even alive, let alone going to play football again is a miracle, and he should win this vote unanimously.
Runner Up: John Metchie III - WR, Texans
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