Most Valuable Player: Justin Herbert - QB, Chargers
After rookie and sophomore seasons that saw Herbert put up an average of nearly 4,700 yards and over 34 touchdowns, he is already widely considered one of the best quarterbacks in the league. He is surrounded by offensive talent in L.A., with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams making up one of the best receiving duos in the league, and Austin Ekeler as an extremely dynamic pass-catcher coming out of the backfield. Last year, with this skill-position talent around him, as well as the addition of second-team All-Pro member, rookie left tackle, Rashawn Slater, Herbert was able to lead the Chargers to the fourth most efficient offense in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA rankings. Despite this, they still managed to miss the playoffs though, largely due to their defense and special teams units that ranked at a lowly 26th and 28th. It was a struggle for first-time head coach Brandon Staley, who had been brought in from the cross-town rival Rams due to his defensive scheme that had led them to so much success. But with the Chargers last year, he wasn’t given the right type of players for his scheme, leaving them as the 14th worst defense against the pass, and the third worst against the run. During the offseason, the team set out to fix that, signing key free agents J.C. Jackson and Sebastian Joseph-Day, and trading for former Defensive Player of the Year, Khalil Mack. Adding these pieces to the stars they already have, like Joey Bosa and Derwin James, should allow Staley to fully utilize his scheme and turn this defense around.
The team success has been the one thing holding Herbert back from truly reaching an MVP level, and if the improved defense can keep up with their offense this year, Herbert will be the best player on one of the best teams in the league, easily making him an MVP candidate.
Runner Up: Lamar Jackson - QB, Ravens
Offensive Player of the Year: Justin Jefferson - WR, Vikings
Last year, Cooper Kupp won Offensive Player of the Year with a receiving triple crown as the first option in the Rams offense. Last year the Rams ranked fifth in the NFL in neutral-situation pass frequency, while the Vikings ranked 18th. During the offseason, the Vikings hired the Rams’ offensive coordinator, Kevin O’Connell, to be their new head coach, hoping he could bring new life to their offense. Kupp was able to dominate last year due to his ability to line up all over the field, running every route, and always being open for QB Matthew Stafford. Although Jefferson has mostly stuck to an outside role through his first two years in the league, he was almost exclusively a slot receiver during his dominant junior season at LSU. So far in his short career, Jefferson has put up historic numbers, with more receiving yards than any player through his first two seasons. Arguably already one of the most talented receivers in the league, Jefferson will have a golden opportunity to improve on the historic start to his career with an even more increased role in O’Connell’s new offense.
Runner Up: Lamar Jackson - QB, Ravens
Defensive Player of the Year: Nick Bosa - Edge, 49ers
Following a 2020 season that saw him play in only two games and record no sacks due to a torn ACL, Bosa bounced back in a big way in 2021. Ranking fourth in the NFL with 15.5 sacks, and tying for the league lead with 21 tackles for loss, he earned his second Pro Bowl nod in as many healthy seasons. Along with putting up elite individual numbers, in order to win Defensive Player of the Year, you need to play for a good defense on a playoff contender. During Bosa’s healthy seasons, the 49ers have ranked second and seventh in defensive DVOA, reaching the Super Bowl and NFC Championship in those years. Although new quarterback Trey Lance is still unproven, the 49ers still have one of the best overall rosters in the NFL, and in a weak NFC, they should be able to easily reach the playoffs. I expect that with another dominant year from Bosa, and regression to the mean from the likes of T.J. Watt and Micah Parsons, he will be in a strong position to take home the trophy by the end of the season.
Runner Up: Aaron Donald - DL, Rams
Offensive Rookie of the Year: George Pickens - WR, Steelers
With no good choices from this year’s rookie QB class, we must turn to other positions for Offensive Rookie of the Year. Despite this year’s class featuring six receivers who were drafted in the first round, it is Pittsburgh's second-round selection, George Pickens, who has emerged through the preseason and training camp. Already in his career, Pickens has become a fan favorite who has earned the nickname “NFL YoungBoy” from his aggressiveness and memeabilty, which reminds fans of rapper NBA YoungBoy’s music. Listed at 6’3” and 195 lbs with a 4.47-second 40-yard dash, Pickens is a high-level jump-ball receiver and deep threat, skills that he has already shown off in the preseason. Although there will be competition for targets with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool, Pickens has a strong chance to quickly emerge as a favorite target for Mitch Trubisky in his first season in Pittsburg.
Runner Up: James Cook - RB, Bills
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Aidan Hutchinson - Edge, Lions
Although he was eventually passed over for the first overall pick by Travon Walker due to his potential, Hutchinson is still the most NFL-ready pass rusher coming into the league this year. A physical freak in his own right, Hutchinson possesses polished pass rush moves for a rookie, and a nearly unmatched motor, that will only grow stronger playing for a coach like Dan Campbell. Coming off the edge for Detroit this year, I think Hutchinson could easily match the production of recent second overall picks and rookies of the year, Nick Bosa and Chase Young, which would make him an obvious choice to take home the hardware this season.
Runner Up: Kyle Hamilton - S, Ravens
Coach of the Year: Kevin O’Connell - Vikings
The most recent hire from the Sean McVay coaching tree, O’Connell is looking to bring a talented Vikings team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2019. With him, O’Connell will bring the Shanahan-style offense that turned Jimmy Garoppolo and Jared Goff into starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl, and while Kirk Cousins certainly has his limits as a passer, he is undoubtedly better than either of those two ever were. Surrounding him is one of the best skill-position groups in the NFL, featuring the likes of Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen, who should all be terrific in this new offense. Pair that with a defense that finished middle of the pack last year while missing star edge rusher Danielle Hunter for more than half of the season. They have made additions at every level, and the Vikings should be a formidable force in the weak NFC. With Aaron Rodgers and the Packers due for regression, Minnesota could easily surprise people by winning the NFC North.
Runner Up: Dan Campbell - Lions
Comeback Player of the Year: Saquon Barkley - RB, Giants
Last year was supposed to be the year that Saquon won this award, following his torn ACL in 2020. But he wasn’t able to return to his previous form, as he once again was plagued by injuries and recorded only 856 total yards and 4 touchdowns. Well below the over 1,700 yards and 11 touchdowns he averaged during his first two seasons. Finally fully healthy again, Saquon is still arguably the most talented running back in the league, and he is, by far, in the best situation of his career. New head coach Brian Daboll has come to replace the worst play-caller in the league, Jason Garrett, and the addition of offensive tackle Evan Neal in the draft should help an offensive line that finished second to last in Football Outsiders’ adjusted line yards. In a do-or-die year for 2019 first-round pick, Daniel Jones, there’s no one better to turn his career around than Daboll, who helped Josh Allen jump from 24th to third in QBR over the course of a year while he was in Buffalo. With that being said, I wouldn’t be surprised if Saquon was able to return to levels near what he was as a rookie in 2018, when he played with a 37-year-old Eli Manning as his quarterback.
Runner Up: Allen Robinson - WR, Rams
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