AL MVP: Luis Robert - OF, White Sox
After a strong rookie season in 2020 where he picked up a Gold Glove award and finished a close second in the AL Rookie of the year race, Luis Robert was set to break out in 2021. He started off the year well, with a .822 OPS through his first 25 games, but he tore his right hip flexor in May, landing himself on the 60 day IL. When he returned in August, he was a man on a mission. With the White Sox making the push for playoff contention, Robert put up a .350/.389/.622 slashline over his last 43 games of the season, good for a 173 wRC+. The 3.2 WAR he had in his 68 game sample size would be equivalent to 7.6 across a 162 game season, nearly a whole win better than Trea Turner’s 6.9, which led all position players. He also cut down his strikeout rate by more than 10%, lowering it from 32.2% in his rookie year down to 20.6%, which helped his spike in batting average.
Robert is a true 5-tool player, with elite speed, power, contact, fielding, and arm strength. He has 24 career homers in only 124 games, which would put him on pace to be above 30 for a full season, and the rate he finished with last year would put him over 40. His raw power is near the top of the league, finishing last year in the 99th percentile for max exit velocity. And in combination with the 96th percentile sprint speed he showed off in his rookie year, he should easily be a 30-30 guy. He has also used that speed throughout his career to be one of the best defenders at one of the most valuable positions in baseball. With the White Sox set to be contending for the World Series again this year, Robert easily has a chance to be the most valuable player on the best team in the league.
Runner Up: Mike Trout - OF, Angels
AL Cy Young: Gerrit Cole - SP, Yankees
Before a rough final three starts last year in which he gave up 15 earned runs in 17.2 innings, Cole was probably the favorite to win the Cy Young. That rough end to the season resulted in his ERA jumping up from 2.75 all the way to 3.23, but he was still able to carry a FIP under three at 2.92 throughout the whole year. Cole has finished in the top five in Cy Young voting each of the last four years, including two second place finishes, but he has never taken the trophy home. Over that time span he has ranked fifth in ERA and FIP, fourth in WHIP, second in strikeout percentage and K/9, and third in WAR among qualified starters. He has elite strikeout stuff, with a fastball that averaged over 98 mph last year, and a wicked slider that resulted in a .177 batting average against. After signing the biggest pitcher contract in MLB history, in both per year and total salary, with the Yankees before the 2020 season, Cole has continued the dominance that he showed in Houston. I think that this year he will finally be able to capture that Cy Young trophy that has eluded him throughout his career, and he’ll lead the Yankees back to another playoff appearance.
Runner Up: Lucas Giolito - SP, White Sox
AL Rookie of the Year: Julio Rodriguez - OF, Mariners
The J-Rod show is here! After getting called up to the big leagues earlier this week, Julio Rodriguez will slot into the starting centerfield role for the Mariners in 2022. The 21 year-old from the Dominican Republic has been dominating minor league ball ever since signing with the Mariners as an international free agent in 2017, posting a .331/.412/.543 slashline with 30 home runs, 58 doubles, and 32 steals across 217 career minor league games. He has shown continual improvement throughout his career, showing more patience at the plate, and developing better instincts in the field and on the basepaths. Last year he put up a 1.007 OPS in 47 AA games after getting called up midway through the summer, and took that momentum into a monstrous 1.305 OPS in Spring Training resulting in him getting called up to the opening day roster.
Julio projects to be the next young star in the league in the mold of Fernando Tatis Jr., Ronald Anuña Jr., and Juan Soto. This year he will be a key part of the Mariners’ potential hunt for the playoffs, providing a jolt of energy to a lineup that has so often lacked it over the past few years, while also providing value on defense and the basepaths.
Runner Up: Spencer Torkelson - 1B, Tigers
NL MVP: Juan Soto - OF, Nationals
Soto has been the best hitter in all of baseball over two seasons, and last year after switching from left to right field, he showed his potential on defense that could make him the best player in the game. Ever since getting called up to the majors in 2018, Soto has been an on-base machine, sporting a .403 OBP through his first two years in the big leagues, but since 2020 he has taken it up to another level. Over his last two seasons, which is a 198 game sample size, Soto has put up a ludicrous .471 OBP, walking 186 times to only 121 strikeouts. His Baseball Savant page looks like a strawberry field with all of the red dots, ranking in the top 20% of the league in every stat except for outfielder jump and sprint speed. Through the first half of last season, he struggled relative to his incredible career numbers, only posting a .852 OPS. But he closed the season on a tear, with a .348/.522/.639 slashline across a second half that would end up with him finishing a close second to Bryce Harper in the MVP race. This year, with the Nationals picking up seven-time All-Star Nelson Cruz to hit behind him in the lineup, it should force opponents to give him better pitches to hit, which should only boost his homerun numbers as well.
Runner Up: Trea Turner - SS, Dodgers
NL Cy Young: Walker Buehler - SP, Dodgers
The next up in the Dodgers’ long list of Cy Young winners, Walker Buehler has been one of the best pitchers in the league ever since his first full season in 2018. Since then, he has sported an ERA at 2.82, FIP at 3.16, WHIP at 0.989, while striking out 9.9 batters per every nine innings, all elite numbers. Last year he took his game up to the next level, throwing over 200 innings for the first time in his career, and lowering his ERA down to 2.47, which was good third in the entire league. Buehler is showing his full potential as an absolute workhorse of a pitcher. Someone who can go out on the mound every five games, and consistently give you seven innings of work, while striking out plenty of batters and barely allowing any runs. In a Dodgers’ rotation that will include other studs like Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urías, Buehler should be able to stand alone, not only as the best pitcher on the team, but in the entire National League.
Runner Up: Logan Webb - SP, Giants
NL Rookie of the Year: Oneil Cruz - SS, Pirates
Despite being sent to AAA to start the season so he can “work on his outfield defense,” which is really just the Pirates manipulating his service time to get another year of contractual control over him, Cruz will be a monster once he gets called up in late April or early May. Last year, across 69 AA and AAA games, he slashed .310/.375/.594 with 17 homers and 19 stolen bases, showing off his elite tools. In the two games he got at the major league level, he flashed his potential, crushing a homerun 408 feet, and ripping a single at 118.2 mph, which put him in the 99th percentile for max exit velocity. At 6’7” and 220 lbs, his raw power is unmatched, having received an 80 grade on his prospect report, the maximum score possible. He will be the biggest shortstop in the league this season, and may not slot into that role in the future, but he has been able to hold his own defensively. His height also has the potential to lead to strikeout problems, as last year he struckout in four of his nine major league at bats, but he was able to keep his strikeout rate from getting too high in the minors, which shows promise for his future.
Runner Up: Hunter Greene - SP, Reds
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